As part of the 2009 Copenhagen Accord Canada committed to a target of a 17 % reduction in emissions below 2005 levels for Canada’s economy as a whole. Without action from governments, consumers and businesses since 2005, emissions in 2020 are projected to be 857 megatonnes (Mt). Projected emissions taking into account all current measures since 2005 including land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) are expected to reach 727 Mt in 2020. 611 Mt represents Canada’s Copenhagen target level of emissions in 2020 (17% below 2005 levels).
According to Environment Canada’s Canada Emissions Trends 2014, sector-specific regulations currently in place, primarily in electric power and transportation, will reduce emissions by about 130 Mt in the year 2020. For example, in 2007 the Ontario Government committed to phasing out coal generation, representing 19 % of power generation in the province, by 2014.
The recently released 2014 Fall Report of the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development concludes that the evidence is growing stronger that the growth in Canadian emissions will not be reversed in time and that the target will be missed. Canadian emissions in 2020 are projected to be about the same as 2005. The audit covered the period between January 2011 and July 2014.