Between the Poles

Infrastructure excellence competition

Infrastructure-excellence.com is hosting the second annual competition showcasing Excellence in Infrastructure— highlighting the best projects done in 2012/2013. The winners will be given over US$10,000 in prizes by the competition sponsors.  The competition is open to anyone 21 years and older who is planning, designing, building, and managing infrastructure projects.  Project types may include the following:

• Transportation (roads and highways, rail, airports, or bridges)
• Land development (commercial sites, subdivisions, public parks, or recreation)
• Water (distribution, water resources, dams and levees, or wastewater)
• Energy (electric and gas distribution, electric transmission, and substation design)
• Urban planning

China plans to introduce a carbon tax

According to Xinhua, China intends to introduce a tax on carbon dioxide emissions.  The local taxation authority rather than the environmental protection department will collect the taxes.  The government is also looking into taxing energy-intensive products such as batteries, as well as luxury goods such as aircraft that are not used for public transportation.  The government is also planning a tax reforms to tax coal based on prices instead of sales volume, as well as raising coal taxes. A resource tax will also be levied on water.

Australia's carbon tax came into effect July 1, 2012.  Much of Australia's coal production is exported to China. If China introduces a carbon tax, it will mean that emissions from virtually all of Australian coal will be taxed.  It will be interesting to see how China's tax rate will compare to Australia's.

The difference between energy conservation and energy efficiency

There's a fascinating post on the Sustainable Buildings Centre blog that outlines how the world energy community has tended to stop using "energy conservation" and to use "energy efficiency" instead.

According to the blog post, after the 1970s oil crisis, in the framework of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) the International Energy Agency (IEA) was established by the International Energy Program agreement, which was amended in September 2008. Neither the original agreement or the later revison  mention “energy efficiency”, but fo refer to “energy conservation” and the goal of reducing the growth of energy consumption:

exchange of national experiences and information on energy conservation; ways and means for reducing the growth of energy consumption through conservation.

The author of the post then did some research on Google and compiled some fascinating statistics on the number of mentions of the two terms in books indexed by Google.  The results showed that the use of "energy conservation" in books increased exponentially in the 1970s, but then dramatically dropped in the early 1980s. "Energy efficiency" on the other hand had a much slower rise in the 1970s, but surpassed "energy conservation" by the middle of the 1980s.

After further research, it turned up that the Shared Goals of the IEA adopted at the IEA Ministers meeting in Paris in June 1993, was the first official mention of “energy efficiency” in the context of the IEA.

Improved energy efficiency can promote both environmental protection and energy security in a cost-effective manner. There are significant opportunities for greater energy efficiency at all stages of the energy cycle from production to consumption. Strong efforts by governments and all energy users are needed to realise these opportunities.

The author of the post notes that ”reducing the growth of energy consumption” disappeared along with "energy conservation".  Apparently, the energy community decided to replace the concept of “energy conservation” with “energy efficiency” which as the the author of the post points out is not the same thing.  Energy efficiency is the ratio between the energy service delivered and the energy consumed to deliver said service. In other words, doing the same with less.  Energy conservation involves reducing overall energy consumption in addition to improving energy efficiency.

This may have to do with the different emissions goals of the developed world and the developing world, principally China, but also India, Brazil, and others, in reducing emissons.  China's goal is to reduce its energy intensity, the amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP, because China will not agree to halt its economic development (China's per capita emissions are much less than the United States) and so its emissions will continue to grow, but not as rapidly. The developed world, especially the EU, has tended to set goals to reduce the absolute level of emissions.

Geospatial technology for the energy industry.

Geopatial Media is publishing a special annual edition of Geospatial World magazine in January.   They have invited geospatial leaders representing the stakeholders communities of the geospatial industry globally to share their views and perspectives on different aspects of the geospatial eco-system. 

I was invited to share my perspective on geospatial technology for the energy industry.  I was quite amazed at the number of areas where geospatial technology plays an important, often critical role in the energy sector.  I am including a few highlights here.  The full article can be found in the January 2013 edition of Geospatial World Magazine.

Geospatial technology for the energy industry

Energy demand will increase by over one‐third between now and 2035.   A massive investment of some $37 trillion in the world's energy supply system is needed during 2012‐2035.  Environmental issues have become a major concern in the energy industry.  It is projected that energy‐related CO2 emissions will rise from an estimated 31.2 Gt in 2011 to 37.0 Gt in 2035, leading to a long‐term average temperature increase at the Earth's surface of 3.6 °C.  Just to reduce the estimated long‐term average temperature increase to 3 °C requires a significant investment in energy efficiency leading to energy intensity improvements 2.6 times the rate of the last 25 years.

Some examples where geospatial technology plays an important role in the energy sector ithat I discuss in the article nclude transmission line route routing; energy density analysis to target buildings with high energy footprints; energy performance optimization of buildings; vegetation management for transmission lines; estimating solar potential and optimizing PV panel positioning; reducing utility truck rolls by "bringing the field into the office", disaster management; and increasing the value of enterprise systems  such as outage management, asset management, and work crew dispatch by integrating geospatial technology..

Energy efficiency of buildings

Residential, commercial, and public buildings account for one-third of the globe's total final energy consumption, but 80% of the energy efficiency potential of buildings remains untapped.  As a result improving the energy efficiency of buildings, both existing and new structures, has become a global priority for governments and power utilities.

A classic example of the application of geospatial techology in the energy sector is energy density analysis and mapping that helps utilities target  energy conservation and demand response programs to high energy footprint buildings. [Image courtesy of Horiizon Utilities]

Energy performance analysis helps architects and engineers to optimize energy usage of new buildings, often motivated by programs such as LEED certification and energy conservation  programs sponsored by electricity distribution companies.  Combining detailed information about a building in the form of a building information models (BIM) together with geopatial information enables energy performance analyses of alternative design options that can reduce annual energy consumption and power bills by 40%.  In some jurisdictions, programs supported by the local electric power utility means that reducing the expected electric power usage of a new building can generate an immediate financial benefit. [Image courtesy of 3D Energy Ltd].

Smart grid management system for operations and analytics

The volume of data generated by smart grid networks has been estimated to be 10,000 times greater than for our existing electrical networks, and much of the data is real-time.  Managing large volumes  of real-time data from sensors is simplified by integration with with geospatial technology that allows real-time monitoring and decision making.  For example, it can provide useful outage information to the public in a way that protects the privacy of individual consumers as in this example when Hurricane Sandy caused outages in Toronto.  [Image courtesy of Burlington Hydro]

IEA projects that current energy trends will lead to a 3.6 °C rise in Earth's temperature

The World Energy Outlook 2012 just released by the IEA makes for fascinating reading.

Primary energy demand

First of all the IEA projects global energy demand to increases by over one‐third between now an 2035 driven by emerging economies. There are projected to be dramatic shifts in the energy mix as collective share of oil and coal drop by fifteen percentage points to 42%.  However, because of increased use of natural gas fossil fuels remain the principal source of energy worldwide.  Unconventional gas (shale gas) is projected to surposs coal in the primary energy supply mix by 2035.

The United States, which imports about 20% of its total energy supply, is projected to become nearly  self‐sufficient in net terms by 2035, primarily because of unconventional oil and gas, bioenergy, and improved fuel efficiency in transport.

Large‐scale investment in energy‐supply infrastructure is required.  It is estimated to amount to about $37 trillion over 2012‐2035, which is equivalent to 1.5% of global GDP.   Of this the oil and gas supply infrastructure will require $19 trillion; while $17 trillion will be required by the power sector for generation, transmission and distribution.

Electricity

Demand for electricity is projected to grow by over 70% to almost 32 000 TWh by 2035.  Over half of the increase is projected to come from China and India alone.  Generation from renewables globally is projected to grow  from 20% to 31% of total generation.

Water and energy

Global freshwater use for energy production in 2010 totalled 583 billion cubic metres (bcm), or some 15% of the world’s total water use. Of that, water consumption – the amount used but not returned to its source – was 66 bcm.  It is projected that water use will increase by 20% over 2010‐2035 (compared to 70%  more energy production), while consumption will increase by 85%.   These trends are the result of more efficient power plants with advanced cooling systems that reduce overall water use but increase consumption.

Energy efficiency

Several major energy‐consuming countries (China, United States, the European Union and Japan) have adopted new energy efficiency measures over the last year.  Implementation of these programs is projected to reduce global energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) by1.8% a year through to 2035.  This is a major improvement compared with only 0.5% per year over the last decade.

The buildings sector is singled out as having tremendous potential for energy efficiency gains (one third of the world's total energy consumption is by buildngs), but four‐fifths of this are not projected to be realized, primarily due to non-technical barriers.

Emissions

The IEA projects that energy‐related CO₂ emissions will rise from an estimated 31.2 Gt in 2011 to 37.0 Gt in 2035.  It is estimated that this would result in a long‐term average temperature increase of 3.6 °C at the Earth's surface.

The IEA has investigated an alternative scenario which if implemented could result in a lower estimated temperature rise at the Earth's surface.  The "Efficient World Scenario" assumes a more efficient allocation of resources which will increase global economic output by $18 trillion by 2035.  It requires an added investment of $11.8 trillion in efficient end‐use technologies.   This investment is projected to be  more than offset by a $17.5 trillion reduction in fuel bills and a $5.9 trillion cut to supply‐side investment.

In this scenario global primary energy demand growth is halved compared to the most probable scenario.  Energy intensity is assumed to improve at 2.6 times the rate over the last 25 years.  It is projected that oil demand will peak before 2020 and decline through 2035,  Coal demand in 2025 is projected to be lower than today. Natural gas demand is projected to continue to increase but at a lower rate than currently projected in the most probable scenario.

As a result, energy‐related CO₂ emissions are projected to peak before 2020 and decline to
30.5 Gt in 2035.  The IEA estimates that this would result in a long‐term average temperature increase of 3 °C.

California's first carbon auction judged to have been a success

California held its first carbon auction Nov 14 and it seems to have been a success.  According The California Air Resources Board the first auction attracted lots of participants, all the greenhouse gas allowances available (23 million allowances) were sold in about three hours and were sold for slightly more than the opening price of $10 per ton of carbon.  And the state has raised $233 million.  

AB32 is the legislation that mandated carbon trading for about 350 companies in California.  In the first two years 90 percent of the credits will be free. In other words, based on their emssions history companies will get 90% of their emission allowances for free from the state.  But by 2016, all allowances will be sold.

IEA projects that the U.S. will become energy self-sufficient

The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World Energy Outlook 2012 is projecting that by 2020 the U.S. will surpas Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer.  US oil and gas production, driven by technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale  gas resources, is rising dramatically.  The U.S. is also starting to see the  impact of new fuel-efficiency measures in transport. US oil  imports continue to fall and the IEA is projecting that North America will become a net oil exporter around 2030.  This means that the United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, will become just about self-sufficient in net terms.

Québec plans cap-and-trade carbon market to link to California's

Under current legislation, Québec must reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.  The new government is expected at the very least to respect that goal or even increase it to 25% below 1990 emissions.

Québec's carbon market

On December 14, 2011 the Government of Québec adopted the Regulation respecting a cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gas emission allowances.   On June 8, 2012 the Government of Québec published in the Gazette officielle du Québec a draft regulation amending the Regulation respecting a cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gas emission allowances. The purpose of the amendment is to harmonize Québec’s system with California’s, as well as with those of future partners like Ontario and British Columbia. It also sets out the rules under which Québec will issue offset credits, whose purpose is to recognize GHG emission reductions by companies operating in sectors not covered by the cap-and-trade system.

To achieve its emissions reduction goal Québec plans to launch a carbon market.  The market would operate similarly to other cap-and-trade systems such as the EU's which was initiated in 2005 and Calfornia's which is scheduled to begin with its first auction tomorrow (Nov 14).  Initially,  the Québec Government will set a cap on GHG emissions for those emitters that are to be regulated.  Each year the cap will be lowered.  Each year, regulated companies will receive a free  allowance which allows them to emit a certain amount of GHG, based on their historical emissions.  Starting in 2015 the number of free units allocated to each comany site will be reduced by between 1% and 2%.  Companies whose GHG emissions are higher than the number of units allocated will have to modernize by adopting clean technologies, or else buy emission allowances at government auctions or on the carbon market.  Companies whose GHG emissions are below their allocation will be able to sell excess carbon credits on the carbon market.

Implementation

The Québec cap and trade system for GHG emission allowances will begin on January 1, 2013.  About 75 companies, primarily in the industrial and electricity sectors, whose annual GHG emissions equal or exceed an annual threshold of 25  thousand tonnes CO₂e, will be regulated under the cap-and-trade system.

Starting on January 1, 2015 businesses that distribute fuel in Québec will also be regulated.

Link to California's carbon market

The Québec Government also has said that it intends to link to California's cap-and-trade system next year.  California has not yet officially approved the link with Québec.  The addition of Québec would increase the size of the carbon market by over 20 percent, increasing liquidity and giving California and Québec businesses more opportunities to reduce emissions.

Study finds under-investment in energy efficiency compared to energy supply

According to a major new study [Nature Climate Change 2, 780–788 (2012)] the EU, the U.S. and the major developing countries allocate two thirds of their public R&D budget to energy-supply technologies, but as was identified in a recent review of US energy research and developmen [Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review (DOE, 2011)], there is a persistent under-investment in building, industrial and vehicle end-use efficiency compared with investment in clean electricity supply.

Directed innovation efforts (innovation targeted on a specific problem or need, in this case climate change mitigation) not only involve public R&D investments but the entire system of innovation for new energy technologies. This article assesses the balance between directed innovation efforts for energy supply and energy efficiency end-use technologies in response to the challenge of climate change mitigation. 

The study finds that directed innovation efforts in energy technology have reinforced the dominance of the energy-supply industry over energy efficient end-use.  It concludes that energy-efficiency in end-use is marginalized in directed innovation efforts.  For example, since the  late nineteenth  century, for every dollar in US  Federal  subsidies  to efficient end-use  technologies, 35 dollars have  gone to energy-supply technologies.  As another example, since 1974 more public funding in developed countries have been invested into nuclear fusion than on all effcient end-use technologies combined.

The analysis concludes that there is a pronounced and pervasive asymmetry in the innovation system for energy technologies. As a recent example [Galiana, I. & Green, C. Let the global technology race begin. Nature 462, 570–571 (2009)], proponents of  R&D-led climate change mitigation identified six technology options that deserved R&D  support. Of the six, five relate to energy supply.  

The study also finds that directed innovation efforts are misaligned with their required outcomes. Inputs to the innovation systems fall into categories of analysis and modelling; technology roadmaps, collaborations, portfolios and programmes; public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) investments; and niche market investments.  Outputs from the innovation system includes market diffusion, learning and social returns on investment, and mitigation potentials of energy technologies for climate stabilization.  The study finds that whereas the outputs of innovation emphasize the importance of efficient end-use technologies, inputs focus on energy-supply technologies.  For example, the magnitude of the subsidies for fossil-fuel consumption is estimated at about $500 billion, much larger than the estimated $160 billion invested in a post-fossil-fuel energy supply. As another example, renewable electricity supply (wind and solar PV) and smart grid technologies dominate public support for R&D. Directed innovation efforts are focussed on energy-supply technologies to mitigate climate change in an aready heavily subsidized energy supply  market, effectively marginalizing effcient end-use technologies.

The overall conclusion is that directed innovation efforts are "strikingly misaligned" with the needs of an emissions-constrained world and that much greater R&D effort is needed to develop the full potential of efficient end-use technologies.

Smart grid, smart buildings and energy efficiency initiatives in Asia

I've blogged recently about energy efficiency initiatives in Europe and the U.S., and I think it is fair to say that Europe is doing more in this area as part of its 20-20-20 objectives than other major economies for several reasons, one of which is an agrressive mandate to reduce GHG emissions.  Another is the goal of reducing its dependence on foreign energy.  There are also member state-specific motivations, for example, Germany's decision to shut down all its nuclear facilities by 2022.  But there is a lot happening in this area in Asia as well and in the future it is expected that Asia will become the largest market for energy efficieny.

Our demand for energy, especially electric power, is forecasted to continue to increase.  The economies of the world where demand for energy is rising more rapidly than anywhere else is in what the International Energy Agency (IEA) refers to as non-OECD countries, including China, India, and Brazil.  In its most recent International Energy Outlook 2011 the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that energy use in non-OECD nations will increase by 85 percent between now and 2035, compared with a projected increase of 18 percent for the OECD economies.

To help accommodate expanding demand while reducing emissions, renewable energy has become a worldwide initiative.  Renewables energy sources include wind, solar, hydro and other sources of non-emitting power.  For example, the Chief Minister of Gujarat recently dedicated the 300 MW Gujarat Solar Park, covering 3,000 acres of desert and one of the largest solar parks in Asia.  But some economies are finding that energy conservation is the cheapest "alternative energy" source.

Smarter grid and smarter buildings

To improve the reliability of our electric power grids and simultaneously enable the integration of distributed intermittent renewable energy, utilities worldwide are working to make electric grids smarter. Smart grid technology involves empowering consumers; integrating distributed generation to support intermittent renewable energy; implementing bidirectional communications networks; replacing older equipment with  intelligent devices, adding sensors such as synchrophasors, making electricity distribution networks self-healing, and automating distribution networks, including substations. 

Increasingly utilities are not only looking to make the grid more intelligent but also to manage demand more intelligently.  In the United States the top priorities for electric power utilities in 2012 identified by analysts not only include traditional smart grid related technologies such as distribution automation, analytics to manage big data, support for electric vehicles (EV), electric power storage, and solar PV, but also smart buildings.

Japan invested $100 billion in technology in the 1990's to improve the reliability of its transmisssion and distribution grid.  Both Japan and South Korea have joint smart grid projects underway with U.S. Jurisdictions including New Mexico and Chicago.  China plans to invest $490 billion in grid upgrades by 2020, including about $90 billion in smart grid technology. 

India is projected to soon become the world's fifth largest economy, but to achieve this the IEA estimates that India will require 600-1200 GW of new capacity by 2050 (that's about the total power generation capacity of the U.S.).  In addition to investing in nuclear pwer and renewables, the most immediate challenge is the up to 30% of India's power generation that is lost to "aggregate technical and commercial" (AT&C) losses.  To address these challenges in  May 2010 the Union Government created the India Smart Grid Task Force, chaired by Sam Pitroda, advisor to the Prime Minister.  One of the five working groups created by the Smart Grid Task Force is focussed improving the efficiency of the Indian grid by reducing AT&C losses.

Smart buildings

Smart buildings means buildings that not only use less power, but are able to manage peak load.  Globally the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that residential, commercial, and public buildings account for one-third of the globe's total final energy consumption.  In the U.S. in 2008 buildings accounted for 72 percent of U.S. electricity use.  In the future the proportion of energy consumed by buildings is expected to increase as emerging economies develop, rising temperatures increases demand for cooling buildings, and rising personal wealth increases consumer demand for appliances. This has made improving the energy efficiency of buildings, both existing and new structures, a global priority.  According to a recent study by Global Insight currently only 6% of worldwide construction activity incorporates green technology.  Driven by regulation, owner and investor demands, resource cost, security concerns, and third party standards, it is projected that by 2020 this could increase to 75%.

The European Union (EU) has taken a leading role in improving the energy efficiency of buildings.  The EU has mandatory carbon emission reduction standards, referred to as the 20-20-20 standard, which among other things requires the EU to improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020.  Another important objective is reducing its dependence on imported energy, which currently accounts for half of EU energy usage.  In 2002 the European Commission promulgated the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) which requires all EU member states to upgrade their building regulations and to introduce energy certification schemes for buildings.  About a year ago the European Commission (EC) proposed a new Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) , also known as the EPBD recast, which imposes a legal obligation for all member states to establish energy saving schemes, with the public sector leading by example.

Energy efficiency is especially critical for Germany which not only needs to comply with the 20-20-20 standard, but also to find energy sources to replace its (non-emitting) nuclear power plants that are scheduled to be closed by 2022.  In Germany buildings currently account for 40 percent of power consumption and a third of CO2 emissions. The German 40 year master plan calls for aggressive energy efficiency policies including new insulation standards and for all buildings in Germany to be refurbished in line with the new insulation standards by 2050, reducing energy requirements for heating by 20 percent by 2020 and by 80 percent by 2050, and providing tax relief on energy taxes to companies contributing to energy savings.

Japan‘s announced mid-term emission reduction target is to cut Japan's GHG emissions by 25% by 2020 compared with 1990, subject to international negotiations.  But Japan has said that it plans to revise this target in light of the Fukushima accident and presumably in light of the recent decison to shut down its nuclear power plants by 2040.  According to an analysis by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the largest reduction will need to be realized in commercial sector, by about 27%. Residential/commercial-sector accounts for 30% or more of final energy consumption and has increased remarkably compared to the industrial and transportation sectors.  Energy saving measures for commercial buildings are urgently required, since the commercial sector including office buildings consumes more than half of total energy consumption in the residential/commercial sector. Moreover its growth has been more striking than that of the residential sector.

The Chinese government has recenty announced a goal of having green buildings account for 30 percent of new construction projects by 2020.  The joint released by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is the first time that China has  a goal for the development of green buildings and underlines China's intent to speed up the development of energy-efficient construction to bring China's building energy consumption ratio closer to that of developed countries by 2020.. 

The government intends to speed up green construction by increasing policy incentives and improving industry standards, as well as promoting technological progress and the development of related industries.  The Ministry of Construction (MOC) is responsible for the development of a national energy efficient design standard for public buildings which was adopted by the MOC in 2005. It sets a target of 50% energy reductions compared to pre-existing buildings for commercial and residential buildings.

According to a recent report by the Building Services Research and Information Association (BSRIA), the Asian smart building market will grow from the current size of US$ 427 billion to US$ 1,036 billion in 2020.

Zero energy buildings

A major area of focus in the EU is “nearly zero energy” buildings.  A nearly zero energy building on average over a year generates as much energy from renewable energy sources as it consumes.  For new buildings, the EPBD recast fixes 2020/2021 as the deadline for all new buildings to be designed to be nearly zero energy.  For public buildings the deadline is even sooner, by 2018/2019.

The Government of Japan put forward its "zero emissions buildings" target in April, 2009.  It defines a zero emssions building (ZEB) as one that has net zero CO2 emissions on an annual basis through energy efficiency and renewable energy generation on-site.  The announced objective ia that all new public buildings will be zero emissions by 2030.  This is a similar timeframe to that mandated by the U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) that requires that by 2030 all new Federal facilities must be “net zero energy” buildings.

Pike Research has projected that as a result of the recast EU EPBD Directive and similar legislation in other parts of the world, such as Japan, worldwide revenue from nearly zero energy building construction will grow at an annual rate of 43% over the next two decades, reaching $690 billion by 2020 and $1.3 trillion by 2035, with much of the growth occurring in the EU.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced the Building Energy Efficiency Policies (BEEP) database.  The BEEP database collects information on buildings energy codes including minimum energy performance requirements that focus on achieving zero energy buildings, buildings energy labels which increase awareness about energy consumption of buildings, and incentives schemes for capacity building, technical assistance and raising awareness.  The database includes information from all IEA member countries as well as China, India, Tunisia, South Africa and Russia.