Between the Poles

Massive open on-line courses potentially transforming education

I have blogged frequently on the workforce challenges facing the utility industry resulting from accelerating retirement among engineers and skilled workers and by the technology transformation  associated with the smart grid.  Community colleges in partnership with utiltiies have been the quickest to respond to this challenge.  But universities, encouraged by program like the IEEE PES Scholarship Plus program, are responding as well, though they are also facing an aging workforce problem.  Now something has appeared on the horizon in education that may provide a way of ramping up more rapidly to the challenge of training the next generation of engineers and skilled workers.

From October 10th to December 18th 2011 Stanford offered a free, on-line course, "Introduction to Artificial Intelligence", open to anyone, that  attracted 160'000 students.   The course was taught by Sebastian Thrun and Peter Norvig based on Stanford's introductory Artificial Intelligence course.  Thrun led the development of the Google self-driving car.  Norvig worked at NASA and is the co-author of a widely used college textbook on artifical intelligence.  The term applied to this type of on-line education is massive open on-line courses (MOOCs).

There were a number of precursors.  The one explicitly referenced by the Stanford instructors is the Khan Academy that offers videos to instruct anyone in a wide range of topics including arithmetic, algebra, geometry, trigonometry, calculus, probability and statistics, differential equations, Cosmology and astronomy, organic chemistry, finance and capital markets, microeconomics, macroeconomics, computer science, healthcare and medicine, drawing, programming Basics, animation, history,  american Civics, and art history.

The open online course that I have watched over and over again is Open Yale's Roman Architecture given by Professor Diana E.E. Kleiner of Yale University and available for free on iTunes.

In August 2012, the online education company Coursera began offering free college courses.  According to the New York Times, by January 2013, it had attracted a million users, growing at a rate outpacing even Facebook and Twitter.  There are at least three other startups (Udemy, Udacity, edX) attempting to do the same thing.

The MOOC approach is getting some acceptance among traditional universites and colleges.  The American Council on Education, which represents the presidents of 1800 U.S. accredited, degree-granting institutions, which include two- and four-year colleges, private and public universities, and nonprofit and for-profit entities. has recommended that colleges could grant credit for some of the free classes from Coursera.

Increasing international competition for highly skilled labour

I have blogged about the shrinking workforce in countries around the world like Japan and Germany, but also in other West European countries.   The shrinking workforce is acting as a brake on the German economy.  The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce DIHK  estimates that German economic growth has been reduced by one percent by the labour shortage and that the problem is getting worse.

The Bundestag recently adopted a bill to implement the 2009 EU directive on highly qualified employment. The "Blue Card" is intended as a new, unbureaucratic way for graduates and people with similar qualifications from outside the EU to enter Germany's labour market.  Austria and Gernmany have also opened the door to skilled immigrants from the east European countries that joined the EU in 2004.  As a result last year the population of Germany increased for the first time since 2003.

North America and Australia would be facing the same demographics if it weren't for immigration.  Canada and Australia allow more immigrants in annually on a per capita basis than any other major countries.  For the past seven years Canadian  immigration levels have been at about 240,000 to 265,000 new permanent residents annually..

Many countries are now competing for highly educated and skilled international workers.  As an example, in a recent interview Steven Harper, the Prime Minister of Canada, said that Canada is changing its immigration to shift the immigration system away from accepting people on a first-come, first-serve basis to one where potential immigrants are chosen according to how they can benefit Canada.  The old system operated on receiving applications and processing them in order.  The new system is designed to prioritize potential immigrants depending on the skills that the Canadina economy needs.

For example, the Canadian Experience Class program is designed to attract people who have already proven they can integrate into Canadian society and meet its labour-market needs.  This program fast-tracks permanent residency applications for skilled foreign workers and graduate students who have already spent time in Canada on temporary permits or student visas and can demonstrate they are proficient in either English or French.  Before it was created, highly skilled outsiders could not apply to become permanent residents from within Canada. Under the new program, applicants can apply from within Canada and expect a quick decision, normally within one year.  The top three countries of origin under this program are China, India and the Philippines and the program is the fastest-growing category of newcomers to Canada.

Shortage of engineers predicted in the UK

In the UK the median age of Chartered engineers rises 10 years for every 14 that elapse.  A new report from the Royal Academy of  Engineering in the UK, titled Jobs and growth: the importance of engineering skills to the UK economy, concludes that the UK will not produce enough engineers to meet the demand for replacement as engineers retire at a an increasing rate.

It is projected that about 1.25 million science, engineering and technology (SET) professionals and technicians are needed by 2020 to support the UK's economic development.  The report finds that to maintain status quo employment levels the annual demand for SET occupations is projected to be 830,000 SET professionals and 450,000 SET technicians. About 80% of these people will be in engineering and technology-related roles.

For the period 2012 to 2020 the minimum number of science, engineering, technology and mathematics (STEM) graduates required to maintain the status quo in SET occupations is 100,000 a year.  Currently, there are only 90,000 STEM graduates annually and roughly a quarter of these choose to pursue non-SET occupations.  The estimated shortfall is more than 30 000 STEM graduates annually.

The result is that demand for STEM skills will exceed supply in the foreseeable future.  Projections of future skills demand predict shortages of STEM-qualified people for all occupational levels of SET. Much of this is replacement demand resulting from skilled people retiring and leaving the labour market.

Immigration helps address aging workforce issue in Canada

The aging workforce problem is a major challenge for utilities around the world, but especially for advanced economies with limited immigration like Japan and Germany.  Because of the serious impact that the labour shortage is having on the German economy, Germany has been revising its immigration laws to make immigration more attractive for highly educated and skilled trades from eastern Europe, Spain, and other parts of the world. 

This is also a problem in Canada. According to Citizenship and Immigration Canada, the country's low birthrate and aging population means in the not-too-distant future without immigration Canada won't have enough people to keep the workforce growing. 

Immigration is seen as the solution to this problem.   In 2010, there were 280,636 new permanent residents in Canada, which on a per capita basis is one of the highest immigration rates in the world.  The Federal Skilled Worker Program gives priority to technicians, skilled trades people, managers and professionals.  The program has a new eligibility stream that is open to international students who are pursuing or who have completed doctoral (PhD) studies at Canadian institutions.

Population of Germany increased in 2011 for the first time in eight years

Since 2002, the population of Germany has been decreasing, primarily because of a low birthrate, but also because of low immigration.  Since 2008 more people have been emigrating from than immigrating into Germany.  The German government has been trying to reverse this trend.  On May 1, 2011 Germany and Austria opened their labor markets to citizens of the Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004.

According to the Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), in 2011 for the first time in eight years, the population of Germany has increased slightly, by about 50 000 to over 81.80 million.  Deaths exceeded births by 170 000 to 185 000, but 240 000 more people immigrated into as emigrated from Germany.  The proportion of immigrants coming from the EU member countries that joined the EU in 2004, primarily Poland, increased from a quarter to a third of the total immigration.

Germany's Blue Card intended to attract highly skilled labour into Germany

As I have blogged before, a shrinking workforce is acting as a brake on the German economy.  According to the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce DIHK Germany needs 400,000 engineers, master craftsmen and skilled workers.  One of the worst areas of shortage is engineering, where according to the Association of German Engineers there are about 80,000 unfilled positions.  DIHK estimates that German economic growth has been reduced by one percent by the labour shortage and that the problem is getting worse. But since 2008 more people have been emigrating from than immigrating into Germany and the German government is trying to reverse this trend.  On May 1, 2011 Germany and Austria opened their labor markets to citizens of the Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004.

The Bundestag has recently adopted a bill to implement the 2009 EU directive on highly qualified employment. The "Blue Card" is intended as a new, unbureaucratic way for graduates and people with similar qualifications from outside the EU to enter Germany's labour market. The requirements for non-EU graduates to be issued a Blue Card are an employment contract with an employer in Germany at an annual salary of more than €44,800 per year.  For occupations faced with a skills shortage, such as engineers, the salary threshold is just under €35,000.  After Blue Card holders aaquire a sufficient level of German language skills, they will be granted a permanent settlement permit for Germany after just 21 months.  The act also makes it easier to employ foreign students and foreign graduates from German higher education institutions. The period during which foreign graduates are allowed to search for  employment in Germany has been extended to 18 months.

This is seen as the foundation on which Germany will become more competitive in the international labour market and is seen as an answer to the U.S. Green Card.  Canada also strives to attracts skilled labour.  About 280,000 people immigrated into Canada last year.  Germany has already improved the legal basis for increased immigration of skilled labour. According to Philipp Rösler, Federal Minister of Economics and Technology, to challenge now is "to establish a genuinely welcoming culture for foreign skilled workers."

Canada C-Suite Survey: Most companies reporting difficulty finding engineers and skilled trades

The Gandalf Group conducts a quarterly C-Suite survey of corporate executives across Canada sponsored by KPMG.  151 C-level executives were interviewed between February 10th and 27th, 2012.

Labour challenges

The survey found that most of the companies are reporting difficulty in finding qualified employees and that for a segment of companies it’s a very acute concern. About a third report the labour shortage is preventing their company from growing.  Even more said they increasingly have to look outside of Canada to fill specific jobs. Engineers, those with technical skills or trades people and some IT professionals are top mentions of positions or skills that are difficult to find.

48% of respondents said that they expected the Canadian economy to have a greater percentage of skilled workers than today.

70% aggreed that labour shortages stand to get much worse for companies because of baby boomers' retirement.

Budget priorities

The survey questions about the Federal budget demonstrate how central labour market questions are to the repondents. 

The number one priority is increased investment in skills training.  Even among the minority who want aggressive deficit reduction, about one in three identified increased investments in skills training as a high priority.  Western Canadian executives tended to add fast-tracking applications from skilled immigrants as something the government must make a priority.

Japan's aging population - 40% will be of retirement age by 2060

I have blogged previously about the aging workforce challenge facing the US, Western Europe(especially Germany), South Korea, Australia, Canada, and Japan.  Government projections of population decline in Japan are unparalleled anywhere else in the world, because of a low birthrate, long life expectancy and low immigration.

The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has projected that by 2060, about 40% of the population of Japan will be of retirement age.  In addition by 2060 Japan's population is projected to be 87 million people, down from 128 million currently.  Life expectancy is projected to continue to rise to 84.19 for men and 90.93 for women in 2060.

Distributech Utility University: Smart grid in North America - progress in developing standards

Yesterday at the Distributech Utility University, Erich Gunther, Ron Farquharson, Sandy Bacik, and Christian Perreault gave a very well researched, in-depth overview of the state of smart grid in North America.  Starting from the premise that "the power system will change more in the next 10 years than it has in the past 100 years", Erich Gunther discussed the major drivers for the smart grid,

• increasing population and increasing power demand
• aging infrastructure - transformers, insulating, switch gear are reaching the end of life
• retiring personnel - losing experienced people who know why we did things in the past the way we did

The term "smart grid" is a marketing term that has become overused and covers a wide variety of elements.  The Department of Energy includes seven elements in its definition of what comprises a smart grid

• consumer participation
• distributed generation
• an integrated market including a consumer market
• power quality including fast resolution of outages
• operational efficiency, utilizing assets to full capacity, and real-time situational awareness
• self-healing
• resilient to malicious attack and natural disasters

He mentioned Southern California Edison's vision of the smart grud as enabling it to intelligently connect the utility to its customers, which focusses on the benefit to consumers.

The major inhibitors that Erich sees are slowing down the adoption and deployment if the next generation of the power grid are

• utility culture - utilities are traditionally focussed on safety and reliability, not on innovation
• lack of integration tools - most utilities are characterized by siloed applications, usually proprietary with severely limited interoperability
• lack of standards - product suppliers are not supplying products that are standards compliant
• lack of understanding of what's possible - technology is moving very rapidly and it is hard for utilities to keep the power on and stay on top of the latest technology

One of the major benefits of the focus on smart grid is that it is motivating companies to understand their business processes.  I blogged previously about how Southern California Edison has looked at its distribution design process and found ways to standardize and impriove the efficiency of this process by integrating their ERP application into the design process.  Edison's use cases developed for its SmartConnect program are available here.

Erich spent a lot of time discussing the NIST/SGIP smart grid standards process with which he is intimately involved.  He mentioned NIST's three phase plan, the NIST Smart Grid Framework 2.0, and the fairly recent SGIP Catalog of Standards which has been released to FERC.  He mentioned that in some areas standards are very well developed and in others there has not been as much progress.  He showed a slide showing the state of standards for communications in a smart grid environment.  In some areas such as wide-area networks, control centers and substations, standards are well developed.  In others such as field area networks (FANs) and asset management there are no standards,

The standards adopted into the SGIP Catalog of Standards include

• IEC 61970/61968 - Common Information Model (CIM) for distribution and transmission
• IEC 61850 - common data model and format for substations
• IEC 60870-6 - standard for the exchange of information between controls centers
• IEC 62351 - cyber security standard for the above standards

Erich said that many substation equipment manufacturers especially European based ones like Siemens and Alstom have been manufacturing their equipment to be compliant with 61850 for years.  He also says that work is underway to enable compatibility of 61850,  DNP3 and CIM.

AU: Bringing the field into the office

One of the most important goals of utilities in this time of aging and shrinking workforces is improving the productivity of operations staff.  Many utilities are finding that many tasks that used to require sending staff into the field can now be done much more efficiently in the office.  I've blogged previously about obligue high resolution imagery from Pictometry, which has just released a plug-in for AutoCAD Map 3D.  

At the Utility Symposium at Autodesk University last week, David Petterson from Pictometry outlined some of the uses that utilities and local giovernments are finding for Pictometry's high resolution oblique imagery.   High resolution oblique imagery not only can provide orthophotography with resolution down to 4 inches (10 cm), but allows quantitative measurement in three dimensions.

Utility applications of oblique imagery

Using Pictometry imagery can provide greater coverage of right of ways and allows the utility to validate encroachments.  In many parts of the U.S. Pictometry provides historical data which can be used to pinpoint in time when the encroachment first occurred.  Tree heights and offsets to lines can also be measured.  Parcel owners can be identified and access points reviewed.

After storm events, Pictometry will refly locations that have suffered damage to provide a quick response to storm events.

Permitting is another important application area of oblique imagery.  Identifying, validating, and preparing preliminary designs are all areas where the imagery can help.

But most importantly, high resolution oblique imagery can reduce the number of field visits (truck rolls) and reduce the time required per visit for visits that cannot be avoided.  Oblique imagery means that everything above ground can be measured.  The lighting is always good and it's available 24/7.