Between the Poles

Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature study introduces new approach for spatial interpolation

Several indicators have been used as evidence of global warming including atmospheric CO₂ concentration, surface temperature, sea level rise, arctic ice extent, land ice, antarctic ice volume, and others.

According to the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, the most important of these is the land and sea surface temperature record. Three groups NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA GISS), NOAA, and the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office (HadCRU) have reported measurements of the change in Earth's surface temperature for varying periods. These results have been criticized in several ways especially with respect to the choice of stations and the methods for correcting systematic errors.

The Berkeley study set out to to do a new analysis of the surface temperature record in a rigorous manner that addresses these issues. The study's objectives are,

• Merge existing surface station temperature data sets into a new comprehensive raw data set
• Review existing temperature processing algorithms for averaging, homogenization, and error analysis
• Develop new statistical methods to remove some of the limitations present in existing algorithms
• Create and publish a new global surface temperature record and associated uncertainty analysis
• Provide an open platform for further analysis by publishing our complete data and software code

The Berkeley group has developed a new mathematical framework for producing maps and large-scale averages of temperature changes from a spatial network of weather station data. The new framework allows short and discontinuous temperature records to be included in the analysis making it possible to include data that in previous analyses were excluded. The Berkeley group has created a merged data set from 39,390 unique stations by combining 1.6 billion temperature reports from 15 preexisting data archives.

Mathematical treatment

The approaches used by the previous three analyses rely on spatial interpolation using a grid system.

• HadCRU divides the Earth into 5° x 5° latitude-longitude grid cells and associates the data from each station time series with a single cell.
• NASA GISS uses an 8000-element equal-area grid, and associates each station time series with multiple grid cells by defining the grid cell average as a distance-weighted function of temperatures at many nearby station locations.
• NOAA decomposes an estimated spatial covariance matrix into a collection of empirical modes of spatial variability on a 5° x 5° grid. These modes are then used to map station data onto the grid according to the degree of covariance expected between the weather at a station location and the weather at a grid cell center.

The Berkeley approach to spatial interpolation does not use gridded data sets at all, and avoids a variety of noise and bias that can be introduced by gridding.

In October 2011 the Berkeley group submitted four papers for peer review

• Berkeley Earth Temperature Averaging Process
• Influence of Urban Heating on the Global Temperature Land Average
• Earth Atmospheric Land Surface Temperature and Station Quality in the United States
• Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures

The chart shows the decadal land-surface average temperature using a 10-year moving average of surface temperatures over land calculated by the BEST group compared to NASA GISS, NOAA, and HadCRU results. Anomalies are relative to the Jan 1950 - December 1979 mean. The grey band indicates 95% statistical and spatial uncertainty interval.

Europe launches first two operational Galileo global navigation satellites

Galileo is the European civilian Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Galileo has been developed as a collaboration between the European Union and the European Space Agency (ESA).  Galileo is capable of positioning accuracy without earth stations down to the metre range.  It is interoperable with the GPS (U.S.) and the Glonass (Russia) global satellite navigation systems. 

On October 2nd the Russian space agency successfully launched the 24th satellite of the Glonass system, GLONASS-M, which is expected to enter service before November, restoring the GLONASS constellation to full operation capability.

A major differentiator with the GPS and Glonass sytems is that because it is able to immediately inform users of a satellite failure Galileo will have guaranteed availability of service, meaning it can be used for safety-critical applications

Two trial navigation satellites, GIOVE-A and B, were launched in 2005 and 2008. Today the first two of four operational satellites designed to validate the Galileo concept were launched from French Guiana. Two more will follow in 2012. Once the validation phase has been completed, the remaining ground and space infrastructure will be deployed.  The first step will be an intermediate operational capability phase with 18 satellites in operation to be completed by 2015. The remaining satellites are scheduled to be in place by 2020.  The fully deployed Galileo system will comprise 30 satellites, 23 000 km in altitude above the Earth.

AWWA SOTI 2011: Top water industry issues are business factors, regulation, infrastructure, source water and workforce

I blogged previously about early results from the annual American Water Works (AWWA) State of the Industry (SOTI) survey that were released at the ACE11 conference in Washington earlier this year.

The SOTI 2011 report has now been released.  2,100 water professsionals in the US and Canada responded to the survey, 80% of whom have worked in the water industry for more than a decade.  57% of respondents work for water utilities and 28% for service providers to the water industry.

Top issues for U.S. respondents

Respondents are asked to identify the most pressing issues in the near term (next 1-2 years), long term (next 3-5 years), and issues that are inadequately addressed

Business factors were identified by over 50% of the US respondents as the top issue in the immdeiate future, by 45% in the long term, and by 35% as inadequately addressed.  The top business factors identified by respondents are financing repairs, replacements and upgrades for aging and deteriorating infrastructure and the imbalance between rates and increasing cost of production,   Respondents also expressed concern about the age of their distribution system and the increasing risk of failure. 

Regulation was second in the short term, but infrastructure was second in the long term and among the issues inadequately addressed. The top regulatory issue was the cost of compliance and the perception that rules were being mandated without considering what other programs may have to be deferred as a result.

Source water and workforce issues were the next most important issues and both were expected to become bigger issues in the long term.  The top source water issues were source water protection, water supply/shortages, conservation, and water reuse.  There was concern about the impact of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) in the shale gas industry and pharaceutical and personal care contaminants, which most water treament plants cannot detect and remove, on water quality.

Top issues for Canadian respondents

The top issues in the short term for Canadian respondents were business factors, source water, workforce, and infrastructure.  In the longer term the top issue was source water, followed by business factors, workforce, and infrastructure.  The top inadequately addressed issues were business factors, workforce, and infrastructure. 

Andasol 3 concentrated solar power plant

The Andasol 3 solar electric power generation plant in Andalucia in southern Spain has opened.  The plant's capacity is 50 MW and uses parabolic trough mirrors that follow the sun during the day.  The mirrors heat a molten mixture of potassium nitrate and sodium nitrate, which is then either stored or used directly to produce steam for a standard thermal electric power generation cycle.  The plant can store enough molten salt to power the generator for up to 8 hours after sunset or when it rains.  This part of Andalucia gets something over 300 days of sun every year.  There is a video about the project on the Desertec Channel.

The technology is basically the same as that used for the 354 MW SEGS project in California's Mojave desert built between 1984 and 1990.

Bipartisan panel recommends US initiate research into climate remediation technology

The Task Force on Climate Remediation of the U.S. Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) has released a report entitled Geoengineering: A National Strategic Plan for Research on the Potential Effectiveness, Feasibility, and Consequences of Climate Remediation Technologies recommending that the Federal Government initiate a research program into climate remediation technologies, also known as geoengineering, to understand the risks, costs, and feasibility of these technologies.

Two justifications for the recommendation are offered.

• the physical risks of climate change are real and growing
• national security, the risk of deployment of climate remediation technologies by other countries is real

The Task Force says that the Unites States must research climate remediation technologuies in order to assess the risks and benefits of different techniques, and secondly, to evaluate steps other nations may take.

A 2009 report Geoengineering the Climate by the Royal Society provides a detailed assessment options for mitigating the effects of global climate change. It divides geoengineering methods into two categories;

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
Removing CO2 from the atmosphere address the root cause of climate change, rising CO2 concentrations. These are beleived to be low risk, but work very slowly to reduce global temperatures.

Solar Radiation Management (SRM)
These methods are intended to reflect a small percentage of the sun's light and heat away from the Earth. They do not address the root cause, rising CO2 levels, but act quickly, and so may be the only way to lower global temperatures quickly in the event of a climate crisis

The Royal Society report recommended:

• Increased efforts towards mitigating and adapting to climate change.
• Considering CDR and SRM geoengineering methods as part of a wider package of options for addressing climate change.
• CDR methods should be regarded as preferable to SRM methods.
• Funding a 10 year geoengineering research programme at a level of £10million per annum.
• That the Royal Society develop a code of practice for geoengineering research and recommendations for governance.

The UK has already initiated the Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) project, which is supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), the Universities of Bristol, Cambridge, Edinburgh, and Oxford, the Met Office, and Marshall Aerospace.  The project was created to investigate a solar radiation management (SRM) technology involving the injection of reflective aerosol particles into the Earth's upper atmosphere.

The first SPICE experiment, scheduled for this month, is led by the University of Bristol and involves hoisting one end of a one kilometer long hose using a balloon, then pumping a fluid up to it and spraying it into the atmosphere. The first test will use water, but the intended materials would be sulphate aerosols of the type injected into the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions.  However, criticism has pushed the scheduled time for the experiment back by six months to allow for more public consultation.

Governance

The BPC Task Force recommends that the federal government begin a program of research on climate remediation coordinated by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP).

The Tsk Force recommends that OSTP should be guided by an advisory commission responsible for,

1. advising the government on how to set up an effective and adequately funded scientific program commensurate with the scale of the problem
2. identifying and recommending policies and practices that ensure effective scientific research is conducted in a manner consistent with the principles articulated in this report
3. recommending criteria for federal agencies to use in deciding whether to approve field research based on the level of risk posed by the proposed activity
4. conducting public communication and engagement activities   

The Task Force also recommends international cooperation, specifically with nations that have the requisite scientific, technological, and financial qualifications to establish common norms and expectations for climate remediation research.

Open Source Geospatial Foundation and International Cartographic Association sign memorandum of understanding

The Open Source Geospatial Foundation (OSGeo) and the International Cartographic Association (ICA) have signed a Memorandum of  Understanding (MoU) with the aim of developing on a global basis collaboration opportunities for academia, industry and government organizations in open source GIS software and data. The MoU aims to provide expertise and support for the establishment of Open Source Geospatial Laboratories and Research Centres across the world for supporting development of open source geospatial software technologies, training and expertise.

In the first phase five laboratories will be established, one each in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Americas and Australasia which will act as nodes for future expansion. It also aims to provide support for building-up and supporting development of open source GIS teaching and training materials, joint organization of open source GIS events, and workshops through the ICA network for wider participation globally.

A hands-on objective of the MoU is to jointly organize walk-in events where cartographic professionals can access and use a set of open source software.Both organizations are also interested in supporting young academics by lowering the barrier to good cartography through collaborative efforts on both sides.

The MoU will build upon the Open Source Geospatial Lab UK initiative started at the University of Nottingham.   An Open Source Geospatial Lab is now being established in Malaysia.

Fukushima Daiichi: Three damaged reactors brought below 100 degrees C

TEPCO has reported that the radiation being emitted from Fukushima Daiichi has droped by a half from a month ago.  The latest measurements indicate that radiation emitted from the damaged reactors is 100 million becquerels per hour.  TEPCO says that this equates to about 0.2 millisievert per year of radiation measured at the fringes of the plant.

An important reason for the drop in radiation emissions is that the temperatures of the three damaged active reactors were brought below 100 degrees C late in September dramatically reducing the amount of radioactive steam released into the atmoshere.

According to the Wall Street Journal the emissions from the plant have continued to decline from their peak March 15.

• March 15 - 800 trillion Bq/hr
• March 25-26 - 2.5 trillion Bq/hr
• April 4-6 - 0.29 trillion Bq/hr
• June 20-28 1 billion Bq/hr
• July 26-Aug 12 - 200 million Bq/hr
• Sep 1-17 - 200 million Bq/hr
• Oct 3-13 - 100 million Bq/hr

Indonesia's location-aware transportation database project

Yesterday Pak Wendy Aritenang, Asst Minister of Transportation, gave a presentation at the Asia Geospatial Forum in Jakarta about the Ministry of Transportation's (MoT) geospatial project to create a location aware database for the Ministry.

The objective of the initiative, which was initiated by Pak Wendy several years ago, is to support MoT day to day operations as well as provide decision support tools for sustainable planning in the transportation sector. It is integrated with other enterprise systems at MoT, and is designed to handle both spatial and non spatial data.

MoT GIS aggregates monitoring data from various modes of transportation including roads and highways, sea ports, airports, and rail.  The aggregated data is made available to regional and national headquarters. Access to the aggregated data  is also available publically through a public geoportal.

Germany's revised feed-in tariff raises renewable energy goal to 35-40% by 2020

Germany's successful feed-in tariff program , which was first introduced in 2000 and revised in 2004 and 2009, has become a model for many countries around the world including Japan, the Czech Republic and Ontario.  The latest revision, which is scheduled to go into effect January 1, 2012, is the first since the German Government decided to shut down all nuclear power plants by 2022.  

The current revision increases Germany's renewable energy target to 35-40% by 2020.  It also increases prices for biomass, geothermal, and offshore wind energy and continues current incentives for solar photovoltaic (reduced in 2010) and onshore and offshore wind.  Germany and China lead the world in solar photovoltaic manufacturing.  According to Germany Trade & Invest (GT&I) Germany’s solar photovoltaic industry employs over 100,000 workers.

As of May 2011 Germany had an installed solar photovoltaic capacity of more than 18 GW. The German solar photovoltaic industry installed 7.4 GW in 2010.

Is the European Union rethinking its renewable energy policy ?

According to the Wall Street Journal in a draft Energy 2050 document reviewed by Dow Jones Newswires, the European Commission's energy department says that in the absence of a global climate-change agreement, the EU should reconsider its policy of switching from carbon-emitting energy sources to renewable energy.  It is difficult to interpret how important this is since this is a draft, not a released document, but it will probably start a lively debate.

Cuurently EU law mandates that the EU cut its CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020, compared with 1990 levels. Some countries like the UK have extended the reductions to 80% by 2050.