As I have blogged about before, shale-gas has transformed the energy market, especially for electric power generation in the U.S. As a result of more efficient gas generation specifically combined cycle gas turbine technology and the shale-gas boom, since 2008 gas has competed favourably with coal on price, resulting in a wave of fuel-switching that may last at least until 2015. The Interstate Natural Gas Association of America forecasts that natural gas demand for power generation will grow at a rate of 5.9 % annually until 2015.
According to the Natural Gas Supply Association's projections there will be new coal power generation capacity built in 2011 and 2012. But after 2012 it is unlikely that much more will be built, primarily because of uncertainty about carbon emissions regulation. The new EPA regulations for power generation are expected to come into force in 2015. What this could mean is that by 2020, coal power generation capacity in the US could drop from about 50% currently to 38%, while gas capacity increases from a current 19% to 28%.
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