Between the Poles

AU: Modeling storm water and sanitary sewer systems

I have blogged previously about the challenges that municipalities are facing relating to reducing combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs).

One of the presentations I have been looking forward to at Autodesk University is the one given by Tanya West on storm water and sanitary sewer planning.  Cities and counties in the US are required to develop stormwater and sewer master plans for their systems specifying the extent, adequacy, sizing, staging, and other characteristics of their facilities so that they are in compliance with environmental regulations.  In her presentation demonstrated how storm and sanitary analysis (SSA) - there is a recent white paper on SSA - can be used to model a sewer network for planning purposes.  She provided a guide to common workflows and the tools that can be used to prepare a sewer master plan including documenting existing systems, assessing different flow levels, evaluating capacity and projected capacity needs, assessing pump station capacity and conditions, and capital improvements planning (CIP).

Most municipalities today have repositories of data that they can access for information on sewers, parcels, property taxes, zoning, as well aerial imagery.  Open source FDO technology provides a mechanism to connect to geospatial and engineering data sources without making copies.  Tanya showed how to use FDO to access a variety of data sources.  She also showed how to identify pipes that have zero or negative slope, incorrect flow directions, or missing attribute information such as diameter.

She then showed how to add flows to represent dry weather loadings to the nodes in the system.  For stormwater systems, storm data can be defined using historical weather data.  For sanitary systems, the amount of flow assigned to a given node is typically dependent on the type of property or land use.  Examples are single family residential flows, commercial and industrial areas.

After creating the sewer network and generating the loads, the data is loaded into the SSA package for analysis.  To prepare for running an analysis for stormwater systems you model storm events using historical weather data.  After running an analysis one of the most important results is a map of the entire system that highlights areas of flooding and manholes/nodes and pipes that have some restrictions or surcharging. You can drill down to see exactly what the problems are for each component.  One of the most convenient ways to view the results, especially in areas of concern, is by creating a profile plot. You can also visualize the results of the analysis as videos that show the flow and loading on selected components of the system over the duration of the simulation.  The results can be published to the web for sharing with stakeholders.

SSA has a robust hydraulic modeling capability that can be used to simulate a wide variety of components including storm sewers, sanitary sewers, combined sewers, open channels, streams, bridges and culverts, roadway storm drain inlets, detention ponds, force mains, and flood overflow routing.  It can apply external flows and water quality inputs from surface runoff, groundwater interflow, rainfall-dependent infiltration/inflow (RDII), dry weather sanitary flow, and user-defined inflows.  SSA can analyze both simple and complex sanitary and combined sewer systems including model looped networks, flow splits, combines, overflows, and storage capacity, find sewer bottlenecks, optimize control rules, and help reduce overflow occurrences, regulate flow to treatment facilities by determining storage within the sewer system, and perform CSO and SSO mitigation studies.  You can also use SSA to model the impact of pollution inflows at multiple nodes such as from a petroleum or chemical spill.

FAO recommends energy-smart food through climate-smart agriculture

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has projected that by 2050 a 70 % increase in food production will be necessary to feed a world population of nine billion.  The FAO's first ever global assessment of the world's land concludes that 25% of the earth's is badly degraded and that a sustainable intensification of agricultural producitivity is required to meet the growing demand. In the past few decades the use of fossil fuels by agriculture has made a significant contribution to increasing agricultural producitivity through farm mechanization, higher fertilizer production and improved food processing and transportation.

The food sector is now responsible for 30 percent of the world’s total energy consumption.  Food prices tend to be linked with global energy prices. The food sector also contributes over 20 percent of total GHG emissions. The challenge we now face is to develop global food production systems that emit fewer GHG emissions, have a secure energy supply and are not dependent on fluctuating energy prices while at the same time providing food security.

According to the FAO one-third of the food we produce is not consumed and a significant share of total energy inputs are included in these losses. In low-GDP countries most food losses occur during harvest and storage. In high-GDP countries, food waste occurs mainly during the final stages of retail, preparation, cooking and consumption.

To meet increasing food demand in a sustainable way, a recent FAO paper Energy-smart Food for People and Climate recommends a major long-term program based on three foundations,

• energy access,
• energy efficiency
• energy substitution through the greater deployment of renewable energy systems

It recommends that local and national governments adopt policies that combine food and energy security to help meet sustainable development objectives while contributing to ‘Climate-Smart Agriculture’.

Investment in clean energy exceeds investment in fossil fuels in 2010

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance in 2010 $187 billion was invested in renewable energy from the wind, sun, waves and biomass compared with $157 billion invested in natural gas, oil and coal. Furthermore the IEA says that renewable energy is becoming increasingly cost competitive with fossil fuels.  For example, it has been argued that right now solar PV is approaching costs comparable to natural gas-fired peaking units.  Bloomberg NEF expects "wind to become fully competitive with energy produced from combined-cycle gas turbines by 2016 in most regions offering fair wind conditions."  In Australia New research from the Australian National University shows that with the new carbon tax, solar PV retail grid parity will be reached in Australia this year.

                    Total 2010 investment

Fossil fuels    $157 billion

Renewables    $187 billion

According to the IEA the renewable electricity sector generates almost 20 percent of the world's electric power.  Hydro power is the largest source of renewable electricity, responsible for about 16 percent of total power generation in 2009.  Non-hydro renewable electricity generation grew by nearly 74 percent between 2005 and 2009.  Wind has grown most rapidly in absolute terms. Solar has grown at an annual rate of 50.2 %.  Installed solar capacity reached about 40 GW at the end of 2010.

Subsidies

According to the IEA's WEO-2011 report, fossil fuel subsidies far exceeded renewable energy subsidies last year. 

                    Subsidies

Fossil fuels    $409 billion

Renewables    $66 million

Subsidies for oil products represented almost half of the total fossil fuel subsidies. If current government policies remain the same, the cost of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies will reach $660 billion in 2020.  High oil prices are making the cost of subsidies unsustainable in many countries and  some governments are trying to reduce them.  Of 37 countries with subsidies, at least 15 have started to phase them out since 2010.

Global renewable energy subsidies increased from $39 billion in 2007 to $66 billion in 2010.  According to the IEA, subsidies will need to expand further to meet existing targets for renewable energy production. In one IEA scenario, subsidies to renewables would reach almost $250 billion by 2035.

Autodesk University Virtual November 29-30

Next week is Autodesk University in Las Vegas, which I am looking forward to especially for the utility-related courses and labs.  But if you can't be there is person, 200 classes in English, Spanish, and Portuguese are available on-line November 29-30 on Autodesk University Virtual. More than 150 more classes go live on November 29.  After the event, AU Virtual classes will continue to be available on the AU website.

AU Virtual is free to everyone.  You can register here.

Project Parsec: Converting geospatial data to utility industry models

Project Parsec is a technology preview that is available for free down load on Autodesk Labs. It is designed to work with AutoCAD Map 3D.  It enables you to import and map geometries and attributes to AutoCAD Map 3D industry models (electric, water, wastewater, and gas) from SDF, SQLite, SHP, and Geodatabase files, as well as from Microsoft SQL Server and Oracle Database. Currently Project Parsec is only available in English, but It can be installed on any language version of AutoCAD Map 3D 2012 software. Once installed, a new Convert to Industry Model icon will appear in the AutoCAD Map 3D Insert tab.  Support for French, Italian, German, and Spanish is planned.

The technology preview is intended to enourage the use of AutoCAD Map 3D industry models. Feedback is encouraged.

Mars Science Laboratory launch scheduled for 10:02 am ET

The latest Mars rover was launched November 26 10:02 EST on a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.  The lanch vehicle had been rolled out to Space Launch Complex-41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station.

The Mars Science Laboratory, as the rover is officially known, is scheduled to arrive at Mars in August 2012.  The rover is the size of a Mini Cooper, much larger than previous Mars rovers,  and is powered by a nuclear battery enabling the rover to operate further from the equator than would have been possible with only solar power.  The goal of the rover is to assess whether Mars ever had an environment capable of supporting microbial life.

You can watch the launch.

Mapping the San Diego power blackout

I blogged previously about tracking the progress of tornadoes across Alabama Power's territory by mapping non-respondng smart meters.

The University of Tennessee Power Information Technology Laboratory has used a network of small, low-cost devices that plug into wall outlets to show the electric system dynamics of the Western Interconnect during the San Diego blackout in September of this year.  The devices record frequency, phase angle, and voltage every few seconds and transmit the data via the internet to the University of Tennessee and Virginia Tech. GPS-synchronization of the network made it possible to show geographically how the system disturbance propagated.  

The red dots on the map are the locations of the monitors. Each line on the graph represents the frequency recorded over time by a monitor.  Frequency is shown as the vertical scale on the graph on the left and the color-coded map legend on the right.

The system frequency dropped below 60 cycles per second (Hz) for 25 seconds, indicating that demand was exceeded supply.  After this period of insufficient supply, the system automatically shed load in San Diego. The blackout suddenly reduced system demand and frequency increased rapidly above 60 Hz.

Climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide increase may be less than previously thought

Accepted values of the climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ doubling suggest 3 °C as the best estimate and finite probabilities for much higher values implying a small but significant chance of high-impact climate changes. By combining sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, Schmittner et al have estimate a lower median of 2.3 °C and a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.

Climate sensitivity for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from preindustrial times has been established as a well-defined standard measure of climate sensitivity. Current best estimates are 3 ± 1.5 °C and 2 to 4.5 °C at the 66% probability range. Recent studies suggest a small but significant possibility of very high (up to 10 °C and higher) values implying the possibility of extreme climate changes in the near future.

Data from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 19-23,000 years ago, can be useful to estimate climate sensitivity to CO₂ because of large differences from pre-industrial climate and much lower atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (185 ppm versus 280 ppm pre-industrial), both radiative forcings and surface temperatures are well constrained from extensive paleoclimate reconstructions and modeling, and climate during the LGM was close to equilibrium, avoiding uncertainties associated with transient effects.

This research combines a climate model of intermediate complexity with syntheses of temperature reconstructions from the LGM to estimate climate sensitivity to CO₂. The LGM simulations include larger continental ice sheets, lower greenhouse gas concentrations, higher atmospheric dust levels and changes in the seasonal distribution of solar radiation. It combines recent syntheses of global sea surface temperatures from the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean (MARGO) project and surface air temperatures over land based on pollen evidence, with additional data from ice sheets, land and ocean temperatures. The combined dataset covers over 26% of the Earth’s surface.

Combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, it is estimated that climate sensitivity to doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration is lower 2.3 °C with reduced uncertainty of 1.7 to 2.6 °C at the 66% probability level. Assuming paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future as predicted by this model, these results imply that climate sensitivities larger than 6 °C are implausible.

Monitoring domestic electric power usage on-line

In Ontario most consumers have smart meters and are paying for electric power based on time-of-use pricing.  Smart meters track your power usage by the hour.  In Ontario time-of-use pricing is based on different rates depending on when you use the power

• On-Peak ¢10.80 per kWh
• Mid-Peak ¢9.20 per kWh
• Off-Peak ¢6.20 per kWh

Ottawa Hydro provides a web site where you can access your electric power usage so that you can see your electric power usage by the hour in either kWh or cost.  Or you can see daily usage over several days showing peak, mid-peak and off-peak usage for each day and the total daily cost.

Peak power is 74% more expensive than off-peak, so that running washing machines or dishwashers off-peak could significantly reduce power bills.

IEA projects energy demand to rise by one third by 2035 and CO2 emissions by 20%

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its annual World Energy Outlook for 2011 (WEO-2011).

2000-2010

In the past decade 2000 to 2010, almost half of the world's demand for energy has been provided by coal, driven primarily by increasing demand from the emerging economies.  Currently fossil fuels provide about 81% of total primary energy consumption.  Renewables represent about 13% of total primary energy demand in 2010 supported by a total of $66 billion in subsidies.  In 2010 fossil fuel subsidies amounted to $409 billion.

New Policies Scenario 2010-2035

The WEO-2011 has projected future demand for three scenarios with different levels and patterns of worldwide energy use according to different assumptions about government policies on energy and climate change. The central scenario is called the New Policies Scenario which assumes that recent government policy commitments are implemented conservatively, and no new ones are introduced.  

According to this scenario, world primary energy demand increases by one-third between 2010 and 2035 with 90% of the growth in non-OECD economies.  China becomes the world’s largest energy consumer with per capita demand in China rising to somewhat less than half the level in the United States. The rates of growth in energy consumption in India, Indonesia, Brazil and the Middle East are projected to exceed China's. 

The share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption is projected to decrease to 75% in 2035. Renewable energy would increase to 18% in 2035 driven by subsidies that increase from $66 billion in 2010 to $250 billion in 2035.  Natural gas is the only fossil fuel to increase its proportion of the global mix through 2035.  Oil demand increases by 15% driven by transportation. Coal demand increases but plateaus at a level about 17% higher than 2010.

In the electric power sector, nuclear generation increases by 70%, primarily due to China, Korea and India. Renewable energy technologies, primarily hydroelectric and wind, are projected to represent half of new capacity installed between 2009 and 2035.

Energy Infrastructure Investment

In the New Policies Scenario, massive investment in energy supply infrastructure is required. In the New Policies Scenario, $38 trillion in global investment in energy-supply infrastructure is required from 2011 to 2035 with 45% going to the electric power sector.

• Power $17 trillion
• Gas    $9.5 trillion
• Oil      $10 trillion
• Coal   $1.2 trillion
• Total   $38 trillion

Two-thirds of this investment is projected to occur in non-OECD countries.

CO₂ Emissions

In 2010 CO₂ emissions reached an all time high.  Non-OECD countries, primarily India and China, contributed most of the increase in energy-related CO2 emissions to a new high of 30.6 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2010.  On a per capita basis, OECD countries still represent by far the largest producers of emssions at 10 tonnes/person/year, compared with 5.8 tonnes for China and 1.5 tonnes in India.  44% of the CO₂ emissions in 2010 came from coal, 36% from oil, and 20% from natural gas. 

In the New Policies Scenario energy-related CO₂ emissions are projected to increase by 20% reaching 36.4 Gt in 2035.  WEO-2011 says this is consistent with a long-term global temperature increase of more than 3.5°C.