Yesterday at the India Geospatial Forum 2012 conference in Delhi, B.I. Singal of the Institute of Urban Transport, gave a fascinating and informed overview of the past, present and future of urban transport in India.
The challenge that India is facing is that the use of desirable modes of transport; walking, bicycle and public transit is declning, and the undesirable modes, car and motorbikes, are increasing. The result is that congestion is increasing, mobility is being reduced, and accidents, pollution and the use of fossil fuels is increasing. Some people are predicting gridlock if something is not done soon, and based on what I experienced with traffic in my four days in Delhi this may not be that far in the future,
Historical and Present
One of the reasons for the present situation is that urban transport has been neglected in India for many years. It wasn't until 30 years after independence that urban transport was recognized as a problem in the Fifth Five Year Plan. It was only in the Eighth Five Year Plan (1992-97) that a plan was outlined for a coordinated approach to urban transport, although nothing was done at that time. But it was the Ninth Five Year Plan that was revolutionary because it recognized that national institutions for urban transport were required and introduced the idea of a "National Urban Transport Fund".
During this period Indian National Railways attempted to develop metro rail projects in Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, and Delhi. The Delhi Metro Rail project was sanctioned in 1997 as a joint project of the Central and Delhi Governments. It became an unqualified success and now six other Indian muncipalities are developing metro rail projects.
A third area of urban transport acitvity was the development of urban bus services in 65 cities. This has been problematic because in most cities bus services are not financially self-sustaining and require subsidies from governments who are cash-strapped as it is. But some cities have found away to fund bus services through public-private partnerships (PPP) programs.
Pedestrian, bicycle and bicycle rickshaw modes of getting around India's cities have long been neglected, but recently some cities are making an effort to enable pedestrian movement including a 1.3 km skywalk in Mumbai and a walking area in the historical centre of Hyderabad.
Projected energy consumption and emissions
The Energy and Resources Institute has forecast India's commercial energy demand and emissions will increase by more than seven times from current levels by 2031/32 under a "business as usual" scenario in which nothing is done beyond existing policies.
Projected future investment required
It has been estimated that in the next few decades some 275 million people will migrate from rural areas to India's cities. In the Mumbai Delhi corridor there are already plans for a new road link (DMIC), freight rail link (DFCC), and seven new cities each with several millions of population.
A recent report (March 2011) commissioned by the Ministry of Urban Development estimated a total expenditure of Rs 39 lakh crores ($800 billion) on Indian urban infrastructure and services by 2031. The expenditure on urban transport is more than half of this, an estimated Rs 23 lakh crores ($500 billion). The Mckinsey Global Institute has estimated that Indian cities will require $1.2 trillion in capital investment over the next 20 years in municipal infrastructure to enable cities to drive Indian economic development. Of this about $600 billion in capex will be required for urban transport and roads.
The Opportunity
According to a McKinsey Global Institute report, urbanization can provide major benefits to the Indian economy. It is projected that 70 % of net new jobs between now and 2030, 70 percent of the Indian GDP, and a nearly fourfold increase in per capita incomes could result from India’s urban population increasing from from 340 million in 2008 to 590 million by 2030.
But to achieve this will require between 700 to 900 million square meters of new residential and commercial space, 350 to 400 kilometers of metros and subways, and 19,000 to 25,000 kilometers of new road lanes to be built every year. To do this will require an investment of $1.2 trillion in capital expenditure in cities over the next 20 years.
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