Nuclear power is making a slow comeback

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) the Fukushima Daiichi accident led to a 10% decline in nuclear electricity production from 2010 to 2012.

• Permanent shutdown of eight reactors in Germany
• Temporary shutdown of 50 of Japan’s operable reactors - it now looks likely that some reactors will be restarted beginning with the Sendai plant
• Phaseout of Switzerland's and Belgium's reactors

But despite Fukushima, 72 new reactors were under construction at the end of 2013, mostly in China, India and Russia.  Belarus, United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Jordan, Poland and Saudi Arabia have projects under development.  The United States is building its first new reactors in 30 years in Georgia and South Carolina.  The United Kingdom and Finland have announced plans to build new reactors.  South Korea has decided to build two more reactors to add to the 23 already operating in that country.

Nearly half of the reactors under construction use Generation III technology, generally believed to be much safer than previous types of reactors. China has announced that it will build only Generation III reactors.  A Westinghouse AP1000 pressurized water reactor is scheduled to come online in Sanmen, China in late 2014.

However, the rate of development of new nuclear capacity is much less than what was projected pre-Fukushima.  In the context of emissions reduction the IEA projects that installed nuclear capacity in 2025 will be 7% to 25% below what it estimates is required to reduce carbon emissions sufficiently to keep climate warming under 2° C.

Fukushima is not the only factor that has slowed the development of nuclear power capacity.  The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), which allows comparison of the cost of different fuel sources for power generation, shows that from a cost perspective solar PV ($130/MWh) and wind ($80/MWh) have become comparable to nuclear power generation ($96/MWh).  As smart grid technology developes and becomes more capable of integrating distributed intermittent sources, wind and solar PV will continue to become increasingly attractive alternatives to nuclear power.

Comments

[Alex Z]

The Watts Bar #2 reactor in Tennessee is scheduled to come online in 2015.