Between the Poles

Global methane emissions 60 to 110 % greater than current estimates

Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide. In addition to anthropogenic sources, mainly fossil fuels, livestock and waste, natural methane sources include the biosphere (wetlands, termites, oceans, wildfires, and wild animals), volcanoes and geothermal emissions, and geological seepage where large quantities of natural gas migrate from shallow or deep rocks and reservoirs to the surface along faults and fractured rocks.

Estimates of emissions have come under increasing scrutiny. A recent study assessed the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. It was concluded that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) underestimates methane emissions nationally by a factor of 1.5.

The concentration of methane in the atmosphere stabilized from about 1999 to 2007.  But here is evidence that since 2007 it began rising again.  A recent study suggests that the more than 30% increase in U.S. methane emissions over the 2002–2014 period could account for 30–60% of the global growth of atmospheric methane seen in the past decade.

In a study just published the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions has been reevaluated. The ratio of carbon-13 to carbon-12 provides a signature which helps identify the source of methane. Both global methane and methane carbon isotope (carbon-13) records were used to compile what is believed to be the largest isotopic methane source signature database, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. Total fossil fuel methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage are 60 to 110 % greater than current estimates. After accounting for natural geological seepage, it is found that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 % greater than current estimates.

Clinton and Trump on energy policy

Electric Choice has created a compilation of Clinton and Trump's announced positions on energy and related policies.  Some of the highlights:

Hillary Clinton

Nuclear Power: Clinton is an advocate for advanced nuclear power and the expansion of successful initiatives such as, ARPA-e.

Renewable Energy: Become a leader in the fight against climate change via installation of solar panels and the production of enough clean energy to power every home in the United States (within 10 years).  Her clean energy plan is focused on generating new economic investment opportunities that will help to create paying jobs nationwide.

Energy Waste: Reduce energy waste by a third to make manufacturing in the United States cleaner and more efficient.  Specifically mentions

• Improving building codes and standards
• Energy transparency
• Continued support of appliance energy standards and labels

Energy Infrastructure: Upgrade the United States energy infrastructure by modernizing the pipeline system, increasing rail safety and enhancing grid security.  Create a new Presidential Threat Assessment and Response Team to help state, local officials, and the energy industry to handle cyber security threats using new improved technologies.

Donald Trump

Coal: Trump plans to revive the coal mining industry by helping to get coal miners back to work.

Oil & Gas: Has previously stated his support for fracking as a way to end America’s dependence on imported oil.

Nuclear Power: Strongly in favor of nuclear energy, but the United States needs to put the proper procedures in place to ensure its continued safety.

Energy Infrastructure: Plans to rebuild America’s infrastructure on time and on budget, but has not yet defined a plan for how this will improve the United States energy industry infrastructure.

EPA issues new rules regulating methane emissions for new oil and gas facilities

 Methane is one of the more potent greenhouse gases for global warming.  The concentration of methane in the atmosphere stabilized from about 1999 to 2007, but since 2007 began rising again.  A recent study suggests that the more than 30% increase in U.S. methane emissions over the 2002–2014 period could account for 30–60% of the global growth of atmospheric methane seen in the past decade.  The EPA has just initiated a process to update rules covering existing oil and gas sources.

Today the EPA Administrator, Gina McCarthy, signed the three final rules that are intended to reduce emissions of methane, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other toxic air pollutants from new, reconstructed and modified oil and gas sources.  The new rules were issued in response to the President’s Climate Action Plan: Strategy to Reduce Methane Emissions. 

The new rules apply to new oil and gas wells using hydraulic fracturing (fracking)

• Well completions (non-wildcat and non-delineation wells)
• Well completions (exploratory and delineation wells and low pressure wells).
• Fugitive emissions from well sites and compressor stations.
• Equipment leaks at natural gas processing plants
• Various types of equipment used at well sites and natural gas processing plants such as pneumatic compressors, pumps and controllers.

There are new reporting requirements.  The final rule requires owners or operators to submit initial notifications and annual reports, in addition to retaining records to assist in documenting that they are complying with the provisions of the New Source Performance Standards.

Owners or operators of wells are required to submit an initial notification two days prior to the commencement of each well completion operation. This notification must include contact information for the owner or operator, the United States Well Number, the latitude and longitude coordinates for each well, and the planned date of the beginning of flowback.

The final rule includes new requirements for monitoring and repairing sources of fugitive emissions at well sites and compressor stations. An owner or operator must submit an annual report, which covers the collection of fugitive emissions components at well sites and compressor stations within an area defined by the company.

The EPA has estimated emissions reductions for 2020 and 2025.  As a result of these new rules the EPA estimates that in 2020, emissions will be reduced  by 300,000 tons of methane; 150,000 tons of VOC; and 1,900 tons of HAP. The emission reductions anticipated in 2025 are 510,000 tons of methane; 210,000 tons of VOC; and 3,900 tons of HAP.

SGIP selected to lead Orange Button initiative

The U.S. Department of Energy has announced $4 million for projects to launch the Orange Button℠ initiative.  To understand the financial risk of solar energy project development, the solar energy community relies on fragmented datasets released by state energy offices and a limited number of private organizations regarding project origination, grid integration, operations, and retirement. These datasets vary widely in format, quality, and content, which makes it difficult for potential providers to have an accurate understanding of potential markets. The goal of the the Orange Button project is to standardize this data which will ensure a more standardized and transparent marketplace.

The DoE selected four organizations, Smart Grid Interoperability Panel (SGIP) , SunSpec Alliance, kWh Analytics, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), to lead the Orange Button initiative.  The goal is to create a widely adoptable, unified data standard for the solar industry.  SGIP is receiving $600,000 to help organize and monitor the Orange Button℠ initiative. 

A robust data infrastructure for the solar industry is needed to enable rapid and seamless data exchanges between producers and consumers of solar data. It is estimated that a reduction in the cost of capital as a result of better access to solar data will reduce risk and could result in savings of nearly $9 billion over the next 10 years to solar users.

The Orange Button initiative is modeled on the very successful Green Button initiative which enabled consumers to share their electric power usage information with third parties.  Orange Button, which was originally named Solar Bankability Data to Advance Transactions and Access, aims at reducing soft costs through standards for the  collection, security, management, exchange, and monetizing of solar datasets across the value chain of solar energy.

Over $4 million awarded for fracking contaminated drinking water

In the culmination of a court case running for seven years, a jury in Pennsylvania found that Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation had been negligent and had contaminated the drinking water of two families near Dimock, Pennsylvania.  $4.24 million was awarded to the two families.  Cabot began drilling and fracking the Marcellus shale formation near Dimock in 2008.

As I have blogged about, a series of ProPublica reports identified instances where it was claimed that ground water had been contaminated in drilling areas across the United States.  The film Gasland showed examples of combustible tap water (methane in tap water) and other effects in drinking water attributed to fracking. 

The serious concerns about hydraulic fracturing’s potential impact on drinking water, human health and the environment had become serious enough that Congress appropriated funding for the EPA to undertake a major study of hydraulic fracturing and its impact on drinking water.Needless to say there is a lot of money and jobs involved.  Hence, the study was very controversial and the oil/gas companies did not cooperate.   Based on the limited evidence the EPA was able to collect, the study's draft executive summary said that it had not found evidence of "systemic, widespread effects on drinking water".  But even the study's Science Advisory Board (SAB) disagreed with the conclusion, saying the evidence did suggest a wider problem.

 A recent study by academics from Stanford in a peer-reviewed journal (Environ. Sci. Technol.,March 29, 2016, DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b04970) has confirmed that fracking did pollute an aquifer in Pavillion, Wyoming.  The authors state "that they have, for the first time, demonstrated impact to Underground Sources of Drinking Water (USDWs) as a result of hydraulic fracturing."

The U.S. is predicted to become the biggest oil producer in the world, ahead of Saudi.  This is largely because of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and other well stimulation techniques, both for natural gas and oil.  There are over half a million natural gas wells in the U.S.   "Unconventional oil and gas" as fracking is often referred to has become a significant part of the U.S. economy employing millions.

But the environmental cost of fracking remains uncertain.  In 2005 Congress passed the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which was an omnibus energy bill (that among many other things changed daylight savings time in the US).  Among the provisions of the bill was one (the so-called "Halliburton loophole") that exempted hydraulic fracturing from protections under the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and Safe Drinking Water Act, which means that fracking has never been regulated at the federal level (EPA).

The 2005 bill, which was passed during the GW Bush administration, prevented the EPA from doing any assessment of the environmental impact of "wild west" drilling and fracking.  However, in the last few years so many reports and two documentary films including Gasland have been circulating about water contamination from fracking that Congress authorized the EPA to do the study of the impact of fracking on drinking water quality.

Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. has asked the courts to set aside a jury’s recent verdict.

Confirmation of drinking water contamination by fracking suggests widespread problem

A new study that confirms drinking water contamination by fracking, something the EPA has been unable to do, signals the beginning of a process to assess the environmental cost of "wildwest" drilling and fracking.  This study relates to drinking water contamination.  The other area where reports are also circulating about the environmental cost of fracking is the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.

The U.S. is predicted to become the biggest oil producer in the world, ahead of Saudi.  This is largely because of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and other well stimulation techniques, both for natural gas and oil.  There are over half a million natural gas wells in the U.S.  There are even wells at the Forth Worth airport to give you a feel for how ubiquitous they are in parts of the U.S. and Alberta.  "Unconventional oil and gas" as fracking is often referred to has become a significant part of the U.S. economy employing millions.

But the environmental cost of fracking remains uncertain.  In 2005 Congress passed the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which was an omnibus energy bill (that among many other things changed daylight savings time in the US).  Among the provisions of the bill was one (the so-called "Halliburton loophole") that exempted hydraulic fracturing from protections under the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and Safe Drinking Water Act, which means that fracking has never been regulated at the federal level (EPA).

The 2005 bill, which was passed during the GW Bush administration, prevented the EPA from doing any assessment of the environmental impact of "wild west" drilling and fracking.  However, in the last few years so many reports (and a film) have been circulating about water contamination from fracking that Congress authorized the EPA to do a study of the impact of fracking on drinking water quality. 

Needless to say there is a lot of money and jobs involved.  Hence, the study was very controversial and the oil/gas companies did not cooperate.   Based on the limited evidence the EPA was able to collect, the study's draft executive summary said that it had not found evidence of "systemic, widespread effects on drinking water".  But even the study's Science Advisory Board (SAB) disagreed with the conclusion, saying the evidence did suggest a wider problem.

Now a study by academics from Stanford in a peer-reviewed journal (Environ. Sci. Technol.,March 29, 2016, DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b04970) has confirmed that fracking did pollute an aquifer in Pavillion, Wyoming.  The authors state "that they have, for the first time, demonstrated impact to Underground Sources of Drinking Water (USDWs) as a result of hydraulic fracturing."

The study involved a comprehensive analysis of all publicly available data and reports to evaluate the impact to underground drinking water sources as a result of acid stimulation (pumping acids into a well to stimulate the flow of gas or oil) and hydraulic fracturing in the Pavillion, WY, Field.  The study found that the concentrations of major ions such as chloride in samples of water from the geology surrounding wells were outside the expected levels for the aquifer, in other words, injected water and chemicals had leaked into the surrounding rock. They also found direct evidence of  leakoff of stimulation fluids into surrounding rock and inadequate casings during stimulation at several production wells.  The authors concluded that acid stimulation and fracking had impacted (polluted) the aquifer.

 

Furthermore, the authors found evidence of organic chemicals used for well stimulation in samples from two monitoring wells that had been drilled by EPA.  This was interpreted as additional evidence of impact to the aquifer and indicated that the chemicals had migrated upwards into the aquifer used for drinking water.

 

They also compiled well depths at which stimulation and fracking occurred and compared them to to the depths of drinking water wells. They found that well stimulation occurred many times at less than 500 meters from the surface and, in some cases, at or very close to depths of the deepest domestic wells.   This is evidence of shallow hydraulic fracturing, which has been shown to be of higher risk to drinking water sources than deeper hydraulic fracturing,  especially given the issues found and documented in several wells in the Pavillion field.

 

In addition they  found evidence of diesel range and other organic chemicals in domestic wells less than 600 meters from unlined pits that had been used prior to the mid-1990s to dispose of diesel-fuel based drilling mud and production fluids.

And because there is nothing especially unique about the geology and drilling around Pavillion, the study suggested that this is likely evidence of a wider problem, "given the high frequency of injection of stimulation fluids into USDWs..., it is unlikely that impact to USDWs is limited to the Pavillion Field requiring investigation elsewhere."

The problem is likely poor drilling practices and management of "produced water" because of lax or no regulation.  If the drillers neglect to put in concrete casings or if they are insufficient and leak, then the chemicals (including known carcinogens) injected into the well can get into drinking water sources.  If the water returning to the surface containing a variety of chemicals (produced water) is stored in unlined ponds as it used to be, this can also get into drinking water sources.

Changing the world's energy economy: Elon Musk announces Tesla Energy

At the beginning of May Elon Musk gave a presentation is which he offered his vision of an alternative to fossil fuels as the future of humanity's energy sourcing and delivery.  Musk's long term objective is global carbon free energy for power generation and transportation.  He announced Tesla Energy and its first products, lithium-based Powerwall consumer (10 kWh) and Powerpack utility-scale (100 kWh) batteries.  He also discussed a third product, GigaFactory, which he described as a gigantic machine to manufacture Powerwall and Powerpack batteries. 

Elon Musk is an entrepreneur with a vision for humanity.  He is the chairman of SolarCity and his vision for practical carbon-free energy helped start the company.  SolarCity has already had significant transformative impact on the traditional power utility business model.  He is also the founder and CEO of Tesla Motors, a manufacturer of electric vehicles and batteries. (He is also CEO of Space-X, but that's another discussion.)  Musk is proposing a fundamental transformation of how the world works, by developing an alternative model for how energy is sourced and delivered.  He believes it is possible with solar and batteries to wean the world off fossil fuels and reduce  anthropogenic CO₂ emissions to near-zero.

The Problem

The world's electric power and transportation is powered by burning fossil fuels. The result is that anthropogenic CO₂ emissions have pushed atmospheric CO2 concentrations (first recorded by climate scientist Charles Keeling) to levels not seen even in the paleoclimate record.

The Solution

Musk thinks that collectively we should do something about this, but is has to be practical (and not win the Darwin award). His proposal for a solution has two parts.

1. Solar
Musk pointed out that we have this "handy fusion reactor in the sky" in the sun.  We don't have to do anything except harvest the energy.  Musk calculated the total surface area needed to generate enough power to get the U.S. completely off fossil fuel power generation.   Shown as a blue square on Musk's slide it covers less than 1/4 of  the Texas panhandle.

2. Batteries
The obvious problem with solar energy is that the sun does not shine at night and even during the day the the power generated varies.  Energy captured from the sun needs to be stored.  Battery technology has evolved to the point where the size of the batteries needed to wean the U.S. power generation off fossil fuels is the size of a pixel ("the red pixel") on Musk's slide.

In Musk's view what is needed is a battery that simply works.  A battery that doesn't require a lot of space, is reliable, works with existing home electrical networks and solar installations, is safe, can be used for years and is affordable. The Tesla Energy consumer battery, the Powerwall, is wall-mounted and comes in different colours so you don't need a battery room.  It stores either 7 kWh (priced at $3000) or 10 kWh ($3500) and can be stacked for up to 90 kWh.  To put this in context the average Ontario homeowner uses about 800 kWh a month in energy which translates to an average of 27 kWh a day.  The Powerwall comes with a 10 year warranty.

What it gives you is peace of mind. You don't have to worry about being without power after an ice storm.  It also gives consumers energy independence.  Together with solar panels with these batteries consumers can go completely off the grid.  This presents a huge challenge to the traditional electric power utility business model, comparable to the impact of cell phones on traditional land-line telephone companies.

Powerwall is targetted for homes and small commercial sites.  You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla web site.  Musk said that shipping will start in 3 to 4 months.  Initially the rampup will be slow because the batteries will be made in Tesla's Freemont, California factory.  But next year the rampup will accelerate as Tesla transitions to its Nevada Gigafactory.

Tesla is not the only company producing this type of battery.  Aquion Energy and Iron Edison are also also producing consumer-scale power batteries.  You can see how Tesla's Powerwall and these other companies' products compare from a financial perspective here.

Powering remote locations

Battery power is even more crucial for people in remote locations where there is no grid (remote parts of India and Africa), electricity is intermittent (many urban areas in India), or extremely expensive (northern Canada).  Musk thinks that the Tesla Powerwall can scale globally.  What he expects to see is what happened with cell phones and landlines.  The cellphone leapfrogged the landline.  There wasn't any longer a need to put landlines in remote locations. People on islands or remote locations can install solar panels and Tesla Powerwalls and never have to worry about electicity lines.

Utility-scale battery storage

The Tesla Powerpack (100 kWh), which is designed to scale infinitely, can provides gigawatt power.  According to Musk Tesla Energy is already working with a utility on a 250 mWh Powerpack installation. 

Emphasizing that the Powerpack is a reality, Musk announced that the entire evening event had been powered by Powerpack batteries that had been charged by the solar panels on the roof of the building where the event was taking place.  The entire evening was powered by stored sunlight.

Tesla's competitors in this market include Eos Aurora and Imergy Flow.  You can see how Tesla's Powerpack and other companies' products compare financially here.

The big picture: transitioning the world to sustainable energy

Musk calculated that 900 million Powerpacks would be required to transition the world to renewable electric power (90,000 GWh).  To transition the world to renewable electric power and electric powered transportation would require 2 billion Powerpacks.

Musk made the case that this is something that humanity is capable of by looking at what humanity has already done with transportation.  There are about 2 billion cars and trucks on the road.  About 100 million cars and trucks are produced every year so that the world's transport fleet gets refreshed every 20 years.  Musk's argumemnt is that if we can do it with vehicles, it is within our power to do it with batteries.

This is the reason that Tesla's approach in developing the Gigafactory is to treat it as a product. They are designing a giant machine for making batteries.  Musk foresees that there needs to be many gigafactories in the future. He emphasized that this is not something that Tesla is going to do alone.  Many other companies need to develop their own gigafactories. 

Musk also announced that Tesla's policy of open sourcing patents will continue for gigafactories, Powerwalls, Powerpacks, and other technologies.Musk foresees with this technology a future where the Keeling curve will flatten and where there will be no incremental anthropogenic CO2 increase.  The path that he has described based on solar panels and  batteries is the only path that he knows can achieve this.  In his view  it is something that we must do, that we can do, and that we will do.  I have to agree with Ed Parsons.  This is on the level of Steve Jobs revolutionizing consumer electronics and commercial music delivery, but working on the "slightly bigger challenges" of carbon-free transportation and power generation.

U.S. Administration targets methane emissions from fracking and other sources

Methane is one of the more potent greenhouse gases for global warming.  In June, 2013, President Obama issued a Climate Action Plan to cut the pollution contributing to climate change. An important part of the strategy involves cutting domestic greenhouse gas emissions. In March, 2014 the Administration issued Strategy to Reduce Methane Emissions, which outlined steps to cut methane emissions.  The administration estimates that implementing this strategy could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 90 million tonnes in 2020.  The administration expects that this initiative will make an important contribution to meeting the Administration goal of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 17 % below 2005 levels by 2020.

Methane warming power

There is disagreement as to just how much more potent methane is than CO₂ in warming the atmosphere.  The EPA has estimated a factor of  21 times compared to carbon dioxide. But Robert Howarth, an environmental biology professor at Cornell University, has argued that it is actually 72 times as powerful as carbon dioxide in terms of its warming potential. 

Methane leaks from oil wells and natural gas wells and systems

In the United States the EPA estimates that emissions of methane directly from human sources were equivalent to approximately 560 million tonnes of carbon dioxide pollution (assuming that methane's warming potential is 21 times that of carbon dioxide) in 2012, representing 9 % of all the greenhouse gases emitted as a result of human activity. Methane emissions are projected to increase to a level equivalent to over 620 million tonnes of carbon dioxide pollution in 2030.  The main sources of human-related methane emissions are agriculture (36 percent), natural gas systems (23 percent), landfills (18 percent), coal mining (10 percent), petroleum systems (6 percent), and wastewater treatment (2 percent).

An important area of uncertainty is how much methane is leaking from shale gas and shale oil wells.  Howarth has argued that the type of shale gas drilling taking place in Texas, New York and Pennsylvania generates particularly high emissions of methane. A study has estimated that between 3.6% to 7.9% of the methane from shale-gas production escapes to the atmosphere in venting and leaks over the lifetime of a well.

A recent study has used spatial analysis to investigate the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Based on the results of this analysis the authors conclude that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) underestimates methane emissions nationally by 50%.  The study found that methane emissions due to the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories.

A source of methane in the atmosphere are leaks from natural gas distribution systems.  A partnership between the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and Google Earth has released the first interactive maps showing methane leaks from gas distribution systems under the streets of Boston, Indianapolis and part of New York City.
 
The Administration's strategy is to target reducing methane emissions from several sources;

• Landfills: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will propose updated standards to reduce methane from new landfills and determine whether to update standards for existing landfills.
• Coal Mines:  The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) will release an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) to gather public input on the development of a program for addressing waste mine methane on lands leased by the Federal government.
• Agriculture: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), EPA and the Department of Energy (DOE) will jointly release a “Biogas Roadmap” outlining voluntary strategies to accelerate adoption of methane digesters to reduce U.S. dairy sector greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2020.
• Oil and Gas: The EPA will assess several potentially significant sources of methane and other emissions from the oil and gas sector. If EPA decides to develop additional regulations, it will complete those regulations by the end of 2016. In addition the BLM will propose updated standards to reduce venting and flaring from oil and gas production on public lands.   

Improved data collection: The Administration intends to implement better data collection and measurement will to improve the understanding of methane sources and trends and enable more effective reduction of methane emissions.

As part of that strategy in April, 2014, EPA released five technical white papers that present information on potentially significant sources of emissions in the oil and gas sector and options for reducing emissions. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2011 there were an estimated 504,000 producing gas wells and an estimated 536,000 producing oil wells in the U.S.  Natural gas development is expected to increase by 44% from 2011 through 2040 and crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) are projected to increase by approximately 25% through 2019.

Two of the white papers prepared by the U.S. EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) describe methane emissions due to (1) gas emissions when fracked and refracked oil wells are brought into production and (2) leaks in gas production (natural gas wells including shale gas) , processing and transmission.

Emissions from completions and ongoing production of hydraulically fractured oil wells

One of the activities identified as a potential source of emissions to the atmosphere  during oil development is hydraulically fractured oil well completions which are operations conducted to bring a new fracked oil well into production or to maintain or increase the well’s production capability as a result of refracking.  The EPA white paper estimates of nationally uncontrolled methane emissions from hydraulically fractured oil well completions range from 44,306 tons (40,194 tonnes) per year to 247,000 tons (224,000 tonnes) per year.  There is no data on the proportion of this methane that is vented, flared or captured and sold.

Leaks

Leaks are defined as methane emissions that occur at onshore production, processing and transmission facilities.  It does not include leaks in gas distribution systems (see EDF and Google Earth above). This includes leak emissions from natural gas well pads, oil wells that co-produce natural gas, gathering and boosting stations, gas processing plants, and transmission and storage infrastructure.  The white paper cites estimates of approximately 332,662 tonnes of potential methane leak emissions from gas production, 33,681 tonnes from gas processing, and 114,348 tonnes from gas transmission.

The EPA has just (Jan 29, 2015) issued a call inviting small businesses, governments, and not-for-profit organizations to participate in a Small Business Advocacy Review (SBAR) Panel that will focus on the development of a rule to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases including methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for the oil and natural gas industry.  The agency intends to add equipment and processes, including hydraulically fractured oil wells and leaks from new and modified well sites, to those currently covered by existing standards.

EPA plans to propose a rule this summer (2015) and take final action in 2016.

Largest reservoirs of methane

An indirect effect of global warming is the destabilization of methane hydrates by warming ocean currents on the floor of the ocean.  Methane hydrates are the largest reservoir of organic carbon on Earth and there is the potential that the total volume of methane hydrates being destabilized by warming ocean currents could be significant.  Methane is also stored in shallow Arctic reservoirs of peat, such as submarine and terrestrial permafrost, which is also being affected by global warming.

Predictions of the future of the utility business 2015-2018

For the first time in a hundred years, the electric power utility industry is undergoing a momentous change. Distributed renewable power generation, especially solar photovoltaics (PV), is introducing competition into an industry that has been managed as regulated monopolies. Consumers with solar PV panels on their roofs are fundamentally changing the traditional utility business model. A recent report from the Edison Electric Institute (EEI) report refers to disruptive challenges that threaten to force electric power utilities to change or adapt the business model that has been in place since the first half of the 20th century.

Most utilities are in the midst of deploying smart grids, which basically amounts to applying the internet to the electric power grid to link intelligent electronic devices, sensors and grid control applications to enable data-driven decision making.  One of the most important changes driven by the implementation of smart grid is the much greater importance of location. Geospatial technology (location, geospatial data management and spatial analytics) is seen as foundational techology for the smart grid.

The other major global change in energy is the shift in energy demand from the world's advanced economies to emerging economies.   Energy demand from OECD countries has hit a plateau.  Currently China is driving world energy demand. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2014 projects that in the future  as demand slows from China, world energy demand will be driven by India, the Middle East, and Africa and Latin America.

Recently IDC Energy Insights released a report IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2015 Predictions with predictions for the future of the utility business.  Some of these are startling, suggesting that the utility industry is going to experience fundamental changes in how they do business over the next few years.

New business models

IDC predicts that utilities will be looking less at generation as a source of revenue.  IDC predicts that by 2018 45% of new data traffic in utilities' control systems will originate from distributed energy resources that are not owned by the utility.

To make up for this loss of generation revenue IDC predicts that utilities will be looking for new business opportunities such as services.  Specifically, IDC predicts that utilities will derive at least 40% of their earnings from new business models by 2017.

Technology

• Cloud - By 2018 cloud services will make up half of the IT portfolio for over 60% of utilities.
• Integration - In 2015 utilities will invest over a quarter of their IT budgets on integrating new technologies with legacy enterprise systems.
• Analytics - By 2017 45% of utilities' new investment in analytics will be used in operations and maintenance of plant and network infrastructure.
• Mobility - 60% of utilities will focus on transitioning enterprise mobility to capitalize on the consumer mobility wave.
• Smart systems - By 2018 cognitive systems will penetrate utilities' customer operation to improve service and reduce costs.

Some  of the important drivers for these trends include the global redistribution of energy demand from the world's advanced to the emerging economies, the rapid emergence of cloud-based provisioning and services, increasing regulatory pressure responding to customer demand to improve energy market transparency and competitiveness, cross-industry competition for technical, especially IT skills, smart analytics, and virtual and augmented reality beginning to be applied in business.

Top 10 technology trends

In March 2014 Gartner, Inc. identified the top ten technology trends which it saw impacting the global energy and utility markets.  There is considerable overlap between IDC's business predictions and the technology trends identified by Gartner, Inc.

Social Media

Social media are beginning to be used as a customer acquisition and retention medium, as a consumer engagement channel to drive customer participation in energy efficiency programs, a source of information about outages, and as the emerging area of crowd-sourcing distributed energy resources coordination. Social media are also being used by utilities for communicating information about outages with customers.

Big Data

Smart grid will increase the quantity of data that utilities have to manage by a factor of about 10,000 according to a recent estimate.  This trend is driven by intelligent devices, sensors, social networks, and new IT and OT applications such as advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), synchrophasors, smart appliances, microgrids, advanced distribution management, remote asset monitoring, and self-healing networks.  The type of data that utilities will need to manage will change: for example, real-time data from sensors and intelligent devices including smart phones and unstructured data from social networks will play a much greater role for utilities in the future.

Mobile and Location-Aware Technology

Mobile and location-aware technology which includes hardware (laptops and smartphones), communication products (GPS-based navigation, routing and tracking technologies), social networks (Twitter,Facebook and others) and services (WiFi, satellites, and packet switched networks) are transforming all industries.  Utilities for the most part have been slow to adopt consumer mobile technology, but  this is changing.

Cloud Computing

Acccording to Gartner, areas such as smart meter, big data analytics, demand response coordination and GIS are driving utilities to adopt cloud-based solutions.  Early adopters of cloud technologies include small utilities with limited in-house IT skills and budgets, organizations which provide application and data services to multiple utilities, such as cooperative associations and transmission system operators,  and investor-owned utilities (IoUs) conducting short-term smart grid pilots.

Sensor Technology

Sensors, which are being applied extensively throughout the entire supply, transmission and distribution domains of utilities, provide a stream of real-time information from which a real-time state of the grid can be derived.

IT and OT Convergence

Virtually all new technology projects in utilities will require a combination of IT and OT investment and planning, such as AMI or advanced distribution management systems (ADMSs).  This will be a challenge for many utilities, especially smaller ones, which don't have in-house IT skills.

Advanced Metering Infrastructure

AMI provides a communication backbone aimed at improving distribution asset utilization and facilitating consumer inclusion in energy markets.

Internet of Things

Sensors and actuators embedded in physical objects are linked through wired and wireless networks, using the same Internet Protocol (IP) that connects the Internet.  When intelligent objects can both sense the environment and communicate, they become tools for understanding utility grids and responding to changes in near real-time.  Following McKinsey there are two key benefits arising from the Internet of Things for utilities

• Enhanced situational awareness - acheiving real-time awareness of physical environment, in this case, the grid
• Sensor-driven decision analytics - assisting human decision making through deep analysis and data visualization

Asset performance management

Traditional asset management approaches are too limiting for today’s performance-based, data-driven utility environment. Asset performance management solutions need to deliver real-time equipment performance, reliability, maintenance and decision support for effective resource management so that operations and maintenance teams are empowered with real-time decision support information, providing the right information to the right people at the right time and in the right context.  The result is improved operational performance and better asset availability and utilization.

Business Intelligence and Advanced Analytics

Analytics will become essential as the volume of data generated by intelligent devices and sensors, mobile devices (the Internet of Things) and social media increases and huge pools of structured and unstructured data need to be analyzed to extract actionable information.  Analytics will become embedded everywhere, often invisibly.

Asian smart city investment projected to quadruple by 2023

Urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, but most of the world’s largest and fastest-growing urban areas are found in Asia.  Smart city technology is becoming an essential element in the development of Asian megacities. There are several smart city initiatives already underway in Asia.  For example, the new Indian government's just released budget includes an allocation for initiating the development of 100 smart cities.

Songdo IDB in Korea and Fujisawa in Japan are two smart cities already under development. China has 36 smart cities in development and a low carbon model city in Tianjin.  Singapore plans to become a smart nation by 2015.  Iskandar is Malaysia's first smart city.  The Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) incorporates smart city concepts.

A new report from Navigant Research analyzes the smart ciity market including smart energy, smart transportation, smart water, smart buildings, and smart government in Asia  (Australia/New Zealand, Greater China, India, Japan, Southeast Asia, and South Korea).  Navigant forecasts that annual smart city technology investment in Asia Pacific will increase from $3.0 billion in 2014 to reach $11.3 billion in 2023.