Between the Poles

Coal-fired power plant converted to largest biomass generating plant in North America

In New Hampshire in 2006 the Public Service of New Hampshire (PSNH) converted a coal-fired plant at Schiller Station to wood pellets. The Northern Wood Power at Schiller Station is capable of 50 MW and gets its wood pellets come from the leftovers of forestry operations.

Ontario is scheduled to terminate all coal-fired generation by 2014.  As part of that goal Ontario Power Generation's (OPG) Atikokan Generating Station in northwestern Ontario stopped using coal as fuel in September 2012.

The plant is in the process of being converted to use wood pellets as fuel. When the plant comes back on line in 2014, it will be the largest 100 % biomass-fueled power plant in North America and will generate 211 MW of renewable, dispatchable power.  Ontario Power Generation (OPG) has awarded contracts to two local companies to supply 90,000 tonnes of biomass wood pellets annually for the Atikokan Generating Station.

Emissions

In a 2010 article in Environment Science and Technology researchers at the University of Toronto found that greenhouse gas  emissions could be reduced by 91% by substituting wood pellets for coal.

According to a Pembina Biomass Sustainability Analyis there are significant decreases in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), as well as both social and economic benefits from burning biomass. The majority of upstream wood pellet greenhouse gas emissions come from wood pellet transportation and wood pellet production. The net life cycle emissions are calculated by adding the total upstream life cycle greenhouse gas emissions to the greenhouse gas emissions from the change in the forest carbon.

The Pembina analysis compared the difference in net greenhouse gas emissions between wood pellet fired electricity and natural gas-fired electricity over a hundred year period.   With wood pellets greenhouse gas emissions are initially high because of the initial removal of biomass from the forest carbon stock. Averaged over 100 years it is estimated that there is an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from biomass compared to the base case of natural gas electricity.

Windy March: Texas wind farms generate 38% of all power on the grid

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has announced that at 8:48 pm CT on Wednesday evening, March 26,  instantaneous output from wind reached a record 10,296 megawatts (10.3 GW). ERCOT also said that at 3:14 am CT Thursday March 27, wind produced 38.4 percent of all the power on its grid, a new record.

Just four years ago, the wind output in the Texas interconnect  set a new record at 5:16 PM CT on May 23 of 6,721 MW (6.7 GW), which was roughly 20% of the state's power at that time.

IEA forecasts wind will account for 15% to 18% share of global electricity by 2050

The latest Global Wind Report Annual Market Update 2012 from the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) reports that the 2012 global wind power market grew by more than 10% compared to 2011. Nearly 45 GW of new wind power capacity resulted from about €56 billion of investment. The new global total capacity at the end of 2012 was 282.5GW, equal to about a quarter of the power generation capacity of the U.S.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Technology Roadmap, in 2013 wind power provided 2.5% of global electricity demand.  In Denmark wind power provided 30 % of domestic demand.   The world leaders are China with 75 GW of installed capacity, the United States with 60 GW and Germany with 31 GW.  Countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) led early wind development, from 2010 non-OECD countries installed more wind turbines.

Onshore wind power generation costs range from US$ 60 per megawatt hour (US$/MWh) to US$ 130/ MWh. Offshore wind technology costs are still higher than land-based costs.

The IEA forecasts that wind will account for 15% to 18% share of global electricity from wind power by 2050. The new target of 2 300 GW to 2 800 GW of installed wind capacity will avoid emissions of up to 4.8 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year.  This will require increasing annual installed wind power capacity (including repowering) to 65 GW by 2020 and to 104 GW by 2050 and will require an annual investment of US$ 146 billion to US$ 170 billion.  The IEA projection assumes that wind isntallation costs will decrease by as much as 25% for land-based and 45% for offshore by 2050.

6 GW of new solar PV installations projected for 2014

According to a recent report from GTM Research solar photovoltaic (PV) installations in 2013  increased 41% over 2012 to reach 4.7 GW. Solar was second only to natural gas in new electricity generating capacity in the U.S. representing almost a third of new generating capacity.  There were 140,000 new individual solar installations in the U.S. The market value of all PV installations completed in 2013 was $13.7 billion.  The cost to install solar dropped 15% compared to 2012 to reach a new low of $2.59/W in the 4th quarter.

Of the 4.7 GW over half or 2.8 GW was utility scale solar PV.  Arizona, California, and North Carolina were responsible for 87% of all new utility PV installations.

Total solar generating capacity in the U.S. now totals 12.1 GW of PV and 918 MW of concentrated solar power (CSP).  There are now a total of over 445,000 solar systems operating in the U.S.

GTM Research forecasts a growth of 26% in PV installation in 2014, reaching nearly 6 GW. Growth is projected to be most rapid in the residential market.

Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (MPUC) offers alternative to net metering for valueing solar PV electricity

The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (MPUC) in a close decision approved a formula for determining the value of electricity from solar photovoltaic (PV) generation, in other words, what the utility will pay customers for the power generated by rooftop solar PV panels. The Value of Solar methodology includes avoided fuel cost, avoided plant and O&M cost, avoided generation cost, avoided reserve capacity cost, avoided transmission capacity cost, avoided distribution capacity cost, and avoided environmental cost. 

It also includes the cost of carbon as estimated by the Federal Government as the social cost of carbon (SCC), whch is an estimate of the economic damages associated with an  of one metric ton in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in a year.  The SCC is meant to be a comprehensive estimate of climate change damages including changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, and property damages from increased flood risk. 

The MPUC ruling is not binding on Minnesota's investor owned utilities, but offers an alternative to net metering.  According to an Xcel Energy filing which uses the new formula, solar PV is valued at 14.5 cents/kWh which is higher than the current retail electricity rate for residential customers in Minnesota of 11.3 cents/kWh.  MPUC's value of solar is remarkably close to the 14 cents/kWh above which Solar City says it can offer a competitive solar option.

Utility-scale batteries offered as a cheaper and cleaner alternative to gas peaker plants

According to Bloomberg AES Corp has begun selling utility-scale battery systems that can scale up to half a gigawatt (GW).  The Advancion systems cost from $10 million to $500 million, depending on size, and will be offered to utilities and renewable-energy developers.

The renewable + energy storage market is getting interesting and has been forecasted to grow to $2.8 billion in 2018.  Solar City offers a small scale residential and commercial solar+battery system which uses Tesla batteries and Tesla has just announced a $5 billion battery factory to be completed by 2017.

AES has operated its own utility battery systems in the U.S. and Chile for more than two years. For example, AES owns a 64 MW battery system at the Laurel Mountain wind farm in West Virgina that competes in the PJM wholesale power market.

Advancion batteries can store power from intermittent sources such as wind or solar or when it is cheap on the grid and then feed it to the grid during periods of high demand. The battery systems are able to replace gas-fired peaker plants.  Advancion systems, which can supply power for as long as four hours, will cost about $1,000 per kilowatt, compared to about $1,350 a kilowatt for a recently built gas peaker plant..  Advancion acts as both generation and load to enable more than twice the flexible range of a peaker plant on the same interconnection.  Advancion’s modular nature with no local emissions allows it to be sited closer to load, reducing the need for transmission build out in congested areas while improving local reliability.

The first Advancion systems will use lithium-ion batteries from LG Chem Ltd , a Korean manufacturer., the same technology used in laptop computers, smartphones and electric cars.  AES intends to certify other battery suppliers at its Indianapolis test facility.

AES is offering the systems in Hawaii and California, where demand for wind and solar farms is increasing, and in regions served by PJM Interconnection LLC, the largest U.S. wholesale power market which includes Chicago, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, New Jersey and parts of other states.

Economic analysis of leaving the grid for your own solarPV+storage microgrid

The Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) has published a fascinating analysis of the economics of leaving the grid.  The central thesis is that solar PV and electricity storage enables consumers to leave the grid completely. 

Solar PV has already reached grid parity in about 10% of the U.S. and declining PV prices suggest that this trend will continue.  However, without the ability to store electric power, consumers with rooftop PV still require the grid for nights and cloudy days.

The development of combined solar PV and batteries from Tesla and others promises to make solar + storage accessible for increasing numbers of consumers.  These consumers could form their own microgrid, either by themselves or with their neighbours and disconnect from the grid.  Increasingly they could find that it is be economically advantageous to do so.  This has serious implications for local utilities because if this trend develops it could seriously erode the traditional utility revenue base.  Generally this would lead to increased rates for the remaining customers still on the grid, which would tend to encourage more customers to leave the grid.

The RMI analysis attempts to show when and where U.S. customers could choose
to bypass their utility without incurring higher costs or decreased reliability.  It  focuses on five U.S. regions New York (Northeast) , Kentucky (Midwest) , Texas (South), California (West), and Hawaii which has some of the highest power rates in the U.S.

RMI modeled four scenarios:

1. Base case—Uses an average of generally accepted cost forecasts for solar and battery systems that can meet 100% of a building’s load, in combination with occasional use of a diesel generator
2. Accelerated technology improvement—Assumes that solar PV and battery technologies experience aggressive price declines
3. Demand-side improvement—Includes investments in energy efficiency and user-controlled  load management
4. Combined improvement—Considers the combined effect of 1 and 2

RMI compares its estimates of costs per hWh for combined solar PV and storage with projected  retail electricity price forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

RMI arrives at some interesting conclusions.

Solar-plus-battery grid parity has already happened or is coming soon for a rapidly growing minority of utility customers.  For many customer segments in Hawaii, grid parity is already here. It will likely be here before 2030 and even as early as 2020 for tens of millions of commercial and residential customers in other geographies including New York and California.

Motivating factors such as more control over their power (Jon Wellinghof, outgoing chairman of FERC has emphasized the importance of this.) and the desire for  low-carbon electricity generation will attract early adopters even before grid parity is reached.

Because grid parity could arrive within 30 years or even sooner for some parts of the U.S., the traditional utility business model based on cost recovery through kWh sales is rapidly becoming obsolete.

As I have blogged before some utilities have foreseen this scenario and have been actively looking at alternative business models.

EIA projects accelerated new natural gas and renewable and retirement of coal-fired generation

The U.S. Energy Information Adminstration's (EIA) AEO2014 Early Release Overview has been released and the Reference Case changes projections from last year's AEIO2013, some significantly.  EIA Reference Case projections tend to be conservative.  One reason is that EIA Reference Case projections assume no new legislation or regulations beyond what has currently been enacted.

Total primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 12% in the AEO2014 Reference case, from 95 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 106 quadrillion Btu in 2040.

Fossil fuel generation

Total electricity consumption in the AEO2014 Reference case is projected to grow from 3,826 billion kWh in 2012 to 4,954 billion kWh in 2040, an average annual rate of 0.9%.  The combination of slow growth in electricity demand, competitively priced natural gas, programs encouraging renewable fuel use, and the implementation of environmental rules slows future coal use. The AEO2014 Reference case assumes implementation of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) and the implementation of Mercury and Air Toxics Standard (MATS) in 2016. MATS is projected to reduce sulfur dioxide levels.   Mercury emissions are projected to drop to 6.1 tons in 2016 from 30.8 tons in 2011.

After 2020, coal generation remains lower than projected in AEO2013, because more coal-fired capacity is retired and fewer new coal plants are built.  Coal-fired electricity generation has traditionally been the largest component of electricity generation, representing 37% of total generation in 2012.  By 2035, however, natural gas generation is projected to surpass coal generation.  By 2040 the coal share is projected to drop to 32%, and the natural gas share increases to 35%.  As retirements far outpace new additions, total coal-fired generating capacity falls from 310 gigawatts (GW) in 2012 to 262 GW in 2040.  EIA’s latest prediction that about 60 GW of coal will retire by 2016 is up significantly from about 40 GW in AEIO2013 and 27 GW it predicted in AEIO2012.

Domestic natural gas consumption in the AEO2014 Reference case rises from 25.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2012 to 31.6 Tcf in 2040.  The largest share of the growth is for electricity generation.  By 2017 natural gas-fired generation is higher in AEO2014 than in the AEO2013 Reference case, and the difference continues to grow. Additional retirements of coal and nuclear plants result in the need for new capacity, and new natural gas-fired plants are much cheaper to build than coal, nuclear, or renewable plants. In 2020, natural gas-fired generation in AEO2014 is 7% higher than in AEO2013, and in 2040 it is 16% higher.

Renewable generation

Increased generation with renewable energy, excluding hydropower, accounts for 28% of the overall growth in electricity generation from 2012 to 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case. Generation from renewable resources grows in response to federal tax credits, state-level policies, and federal requirements to use more biomass-based transportation fuels. In the final decade of the projection, however, renewable generation growth is driven by increasing cost competiveness with other nonrenewable technologies.  The share of U.S. electricity generation coming from renewable fuels (including conventional hydropower) grows from 12% in 2012 to 16% in 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case, even with federal subsidies for renewable generation assumed to expire as enacted.

Generation of electricity from solar photovoltaic energy shows the fastest growth accounting for 7.5% of total electricity generation from all nonhydropower renewable energy sources in 2040.  Excluding hydroelectricity, renewable energy consumption in the electric power sector grows from 1.9 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 4.5 quadrillion Btu in 2040, with wind accounting for 39% of the growth.

Energy intensity

Energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP declines by 43% from 2012 to 2040 in AEO2014 as the result of a continued shift from manufacturing to services (and, even within manufacturing, to less-energy-intensive manufacturing industries), rising energy prices, and the adoption of policies that promote energy efficiency.

U.S. energy use per capita was constant from 1990 to 2007 but began to fall after 2007. In the AEO2014 Reference case, energy use per capita continues to decline as a result of improvements in energy efficiency and changes in the ways energy is used in the U.S. economy. Total U.S. population is projected to increase by 21% from 2012 to 2040, but energy use grows by only 12%, with energy use per capita declining by 8% from 2012 to 2040.

CO2 emisssions

CO2 emissions per 2005 dollar of GDP have historically tracked closely with energy use per dollar of GDP. In the AEO2014 Reference case with lower-carbon fuels accounting for a growing share of total energy use, CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP decline more rapidly than energy use per dollar of GDP, to 56% below their 2005 level in 2040 (or by 2.3% per year).

In the AEO2014 Reference case projected energy-related CO2 emissions in 2020 and 2040 are about 9% and 7%, respectively, below the 2005 level.  Again the EIA Reference Case assumed no new legislation or regulations beyond what is currently enacted.

Cost of utility-scale solar PV has dropped from $0.21/kWh in 2010 to $0.11/kWh in 2013

In February 2011, the Department of Energy (DoE) launched its SunShot Initiative to make solar energy cost-competitive with traditional energy sources by the end of the decade. DoE has just announced that utility-scale PV industry is more than 60 % of the way to achieving SunShot's target of $0.06/kWh. The average price for a utility-scale PV project has dropped from about $0.21/kWh in 2010 to $0.11/kWh at the end of 2013. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average price of electricity is about $0.12/kWh in the U.S.

Reductions in the cost of electricity are based on estimates of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) which a measure of the national average of electricity cost based on certain assumptions regarding financing costs and generation availability projected over the life of a generating asset. The LCOE model provides a benchmark for measuring relative changes in the price of electric power.

Web-based open source geospatial tool for estimating the solar power potential of cities

At the India Geospatial Forum in Hyderabad, I moderated a session on electric power.  It turned out ot be an absolutely fascinating conversation with a wide range of speakers representing different aspects of the Indian power industry.

Alekhya Datta, a Research Associate at the Centre for Distributed Generation, part of The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in New Delhi, gave a presentation about a web-based open source geospatial application that has been developed to estimate the solar power generation potential of a city.

TERI promotes renewable energy and is working with the Ministry of Power to develop a roadmap for renewable energy for India.  The objective is to install 20 GW of solar PV by 2020.  As part of this effort 51 cities have been designated as "Solar Cities" and TERI is working with state governments to develop a program to encourage the installation of solar PV in these cities. 

Chandigarh has been chosen to be first solar city.  Chandigarh is the first planned city post-independence and is in the North of India.  Its population is about a million.

One of the projects to support the Solar City initative is to develop a high performance and flexible Web-GIS tool to estimate the rooftop solar power potential for a city.  It is intended to be low cost, acessible to the public and to use widely available data sources. 

Data sources

Satellite imagery (Pleiades-1A) is used for digitizing building rooftops.  This is augmented by a digital surface model and meteoroloigcal information so that it can account for shadowing and cloud cover and includes the heights of buildings, trees and utiltiy poles.  Rooftop solar analysis is simpler in Chandigarh than in North American and European cities because roofs are flat.

The total number of rooftops that were digitized is about 110,500.  In addition about 14,000 buildings were surveyed and of these 50-60 were used for ground-based solar radiation measurement. For a subsample of 5-10 of these, solar pV panels were actually installed on the rooves and the generated power measured.

Estimating the solar potential of cities

The web-based tool was developed using open source geospatial libraries including Open Layers, GeoServer, PostGIS and TileServer and relies on OGC open standards.  It is intended to be extended to enable it to be used in the other 50 solar cities including Delhi. It enables users to estimate the rooftop solar power potential of selected area for different types of PV technologies such as crystalline and thin-film.  It also provides tools for estimating potential green house gas mitigation through solar rooftop PV systems for a specific area.  The tool is available here (or here)and Alekhya Datta encourages people to try it.

It is envisioned that it will be used as a decision support system to perform pre-feasibility assessments of viability of devloping a rooftop PV program for a city for a particular region or area in the context of the possible business models and financial schemes that are available in that locality.