Between the Poles

European initiative to improve knowledge of the subsurface in cities

The challenge of increasing urbanization in a world where anthropogenic pressure on the environment has become threatening is driving the digitalization of urban planning and the design, construction and maintenance and operations of urban infrastructure. Building information modeling and laser and photogrammetric scanning of entire cities is resulting in comprehensive digital twins of the aboveground of cities. But the below ground has been neglected. There is a growing recognition that the subsurface needs to be included in urban planning and construction to reduce the risks of conflicts with subsurface infrastructure and to maximize the benefits of subsurface resources.

Over the last couple of years, the COST TU1206 Sub-Urban program has identified a knowledge and communication gap between subsurface experts, urban planners and decision makers. To bridge this gap it is necessary to improve information about the subsurface, ensure it is broadly accessible, and to make sure that the people receiving the information are able to understand and use the information to take decisions. The objective of the TU1206 Sub-Urban program is to transform the relationship between experts who are developing urban subsurface knowledge and those who can benefit most from it. The Sub-Urban program is developing a network to co-ordinate, integrate and accelerate research into modelling the subsurface in European institutions. 150 researchers in 30 countries are contributing to the Sub-Urban program. Nearly a hundred cities are participating in the program.

At a preconference workshop organized by Geodan and TNO at the GEO|Design+BIM conference in Amsterdam, Rob van der Krogt, Johannes de Beer and Ignace van Campenhout gave an overview of the work of the TU1206 Sub-Urban program. The program comprises geological survey organizations, cities, and research partners from the member states of the European Union. Its goal is to improve the management of the subsurface in Europe's cities and to open up knowledge about the subsurface to enable the smart cities of tomorrow. Its objectives are to coordinate cross-disciplinary research on the subsurface, share methodologies and knowledge, inform and empower policy and decision makers and broaden the relevance and impact of our knowledge about the subsurface to make it fully complementary to and interoperable with above ground 3D urban models.

To date the Sub-Urban program has produced nineteen City Reports covering the subsurface information available about specific European cities. It has also generated seven thematic reports related to subsurface topics including subsurface planning, geochemistry, geotechnical issues, geothermal energy, groundwater, data management, 3D modeling, and cultural heritage.

Navigating through the toolbox

A key goal of the program is to develop a Toolbox to enable subsurface knowledge to be widely disseminated. The Toolbox is a fit-for-purpose suite of recommended methodologies, good practices, guidance and case studies to enable the free flow of key subsurface data knowledge.

One of the challenges identified by the program is that urban planners are not talking to subsurface experts. For example, at the workshop Ignace van Campenhout gave an example where a new stadium was designed without consideration for the subsurface in a part of Rotterdam.

Planned site for new Rotterdam stadium and subsurface map showing abandoned oilfield.

It was discovered subsequently that a major underground gas pipeline goes through the middle of the site. It was also found that the site lies above an abandoned oil field, which would be an opportunity for using geothermal heat to reduce the carbon footprint of the stadium. To begin to get urban planners and designers and subsurface experts communicating was the motivation for the preconference workshop “Utilizing subsurface data for urban planning, design, construction and maintenance” organized by Geodan and TNO at the GEO|Design+BIM conference in Amsterdam which I blogged about yesterday.

The workshop was effective in illuminating the risk of decision making without information about the subsurface. Poor information about the subsurface costs the world economy trillions of dollars. What is underway in the Netherlands with the Key Registry for the Subsurface or BRO is the beginning of a practical solution to this problem and I expect that the TU1206 Sub-Urban program will be directly involved in BRO and will help disseminate information about the BRO program as it is implemented beginning in 2018.

Key registry created in the Netherlands to help model the subsurface

Increasing urbanization throughout the world challenges the sustainable development and resilience of cities. Despite this, the importance of the ground beneath cities is often overlooked.  A lot of information about the underground is captured during excavation and drilling. But this data is typically stored in project or private databases and is not shared. Capturing this data in a shared, open database is a first step toward developing a model of the subsurface that can be reliably used for urban planning, design, construction and maintenance.  The Netherlands has recently embarked on a national program supported by legislation and standards to do just that.

At the preconference workshop “Utilizing subsurface data for urban planning, design, construction and maintenance” organized by Geodan and TNO at the GEO|Design+BIM conference in Amsterdam, Michiel van der Meulen of the COST Sub-Urban program presented an overview of a new program supported by legislation to develop and maintain an open database of information about the subsurface in the Netherlands.

Current data about the subsurface in the Netherlands comes from borehole logs, cone penetration tests, and groundwater measuring points. Most of the currently available information about the subsurface in the Netherlands comes from boreholes drilled typically to over 100 meters using light drilling equipment as well as some boreholes to much greater depths using heavy drilling equipment. This information is available for free through the DINOloket of the TNO, Geological Survey of the Netherlands.

Based on interpolating from the existing borehole data, there are several models of the subsurface in the Netherlands developed by the Geological Survey of the Nethelands. For example, there is a model of the subsurface down to 50 meters. It has a resolution of 100 by 100 by half a meter. It was intended to assist in identifying aquifers and gas fields. This is too course for city planning purposes. What an urban planner needs is much higher resolution and that will require more data.

In 2015 a new law was passed by the States General or parliament in the Netherlands creating a Basisregistratie Ondergrond (BRO) or Key Registry for the Subsurface. The law mandates that if you excavate or drill you have to share your data (relating to soils, geotechnics, and groundwater) with the registry. In addition if when using the data in the registry you find something is incorrect you have to report it. The registry is required to be open and accessible to all citizens of the Netherlands. This new registry will require new standards for recording data and there is a major effort underway in the Netherlands to develop these standards. The implementation of the new subsurface registry will begin in 2018.

The Key Registry for the Subsurface or BRO is intended to provide transparent and accessible information about the subsurface. It is subject to the government's open data policy. In addition to providing data for urban planning, design, construction and maintenance, it is intended to include an inventory of opportunities and risks relating to subsurface, provide data for sustainable water management and to support the governments goal of moving toward a carbon neutral economy at the national regional and local levels. It is also intended to reduce the costs associated with infrastructure management for soil remediation.

The overall goal is to initiate the process of organizing an information chain that will harness geological survey and city efforts in building databases and creating the necessary standards for information production about the subsurface. But to better serve cities with the subsurface information they need, Michiel van der Meulen said that we need to rethink geological mapping, rethink urban information management, and create new alliances among organizations involved in urban development. The new BRO key registry is an important first step in the process of developing models of the subsurface that can be joined seamlessly with above surface information to create the comprehensive digital twins that will be required by the smart cities of the future.

Urban planning working group announced by the Open Geospatial Consortium

An Urban Planning Domain Working Group (DWG) has been chartered to define the role for Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards within the urban planning discipline.  The DWG offers an open forum for the discussion and presentation of interoperability requirements, use cases, and implementations of OGC standards relevant to urban planning. 

Technologies and trends such as smart cities, smart grids, sensor webs, the Internet of Things (IoT), facilities and asset management, indoor and outdoor navigation, energy performance modeling and real-time, “big data” analytics are important for urban planners.  In these technology domains, open standards encourage the sharing of information. The OGC Urban Planning Domain Working Group intends to discover requirements for open spatial standards in information systems involved in the planning, design, use, maintenance and governance of publicly accessible spaces. Requirements identified by OGC Domain Working Groups are typically used as the basis for standards development by chartered OGC Standards Working Groups (SWGs).

Image: Sunshine Ecomap

OGC's new Urban Planning group releases draft charter

An Urban Planning Domain Working Group (DWG) is being chartered to define the role for OGC standards and related activities related to urban planning.  It is also intended to provide an open forum for the discussion of interoperability requirements, use cases, pilots, and implementations of OGC standards in this domain.  The OGC seeks comments from the public on the draft new charter. The comment period closes on  6 August 2014.

Technologies and trends such as Augmented Reality (AR), Smart Cities, Smart Grids, Sensor Webs, the Internet of Things (IoT), LBS (Location Based Services), Facilities Management, navigation (indoor and outdoor) and “Big Data” Analytics all can play important roles in informing urban planners.  In these technology domains, open standards can facilitate the development, publication, discovery, and use of information. The OGC Urban Planning DWG intends to discover requirements for open geospatial standards in information systems involved in the planning, design, use, maintenance and governance of publicly accessible spaces.

UN projects 35 megacities by 2025

By 2025 the UN projects there will be 35 megacities (10m+) in comparison to 22 in 2011.

Population growth of the top 15 megacities millions, 2001 to 2025 (projection)

1. Tokyo 37m 39m (+5%)
2. New Delhi 23m 33m (+42%)
3. Shanghai 20m 28m (+40%)
4. Mumbai 20m 27m (+39%)
5. Mexico City 20m 25m (+25%)
6. New York 20m 24m (+20%)
7. Beijing 16m 23m (+44%)
8. Dhaka 15m 23m (+53%)
9. Sao Paulo 20m 23m (+15%)
10. Karachi 14m 20m (+43%)
11. Calcutta 14m 19m (+36%)
12. Manila 12m 16m (+33%)
13. Buenos Aires 14m 16m (+14%)
14. Los Andeles 12m 16m (+23%)
15. Rio de Janeiro 12m 14m (+17%)

Source: UN Population Division and World Economic Forum: Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014

Top 600 cities with one fifth of world population projected to generate 60% of GDP by 2025

The global urban population is growing by 65 million annually.  More than half of the world’s population is already living in cities, and these cities generate more than 80 percent of global GDP.   It is expected that urbanization will continue to be one of the biggest drivers of global economic growth.  The productivity improvement from urbanization has already delivered substantial economic growth and helped radically reduce poverty in countries such as China and Brazil.

The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) in a report Urban world:Mapping the economic power of cities (also summarized in Foreign Affairs) has projected the growth of urbanization demographically and economically over the next 15 years.   The report is based on a number of assumptions that together represent a possible future scenaio and relies on MGI's Cityscope database of more than 2,000 cities that coalesces MGI regional research on cities. Together, the 2000 cities of the MGI Cityscope are projected to contribute 75 percent of global GDP growth to 2025. 

MGI projects that 600 urban agglomerations, representing a fifth of the world’s population, will generate 60 percent of global GDP in 2025.

In this report MGI projects one scenario of how cities will evolve demographically and economically over the next 15 years.  There are some surprising conclusions that may change government and companies strategies in how they investment in markets in the future.

Regional distribution

Top cities in 2025 by: 

              pop                  gdp         gdp_growth

1. Tokyo             New York     Shanghai
2. Mumbai        Tokyo            Beijing
3. Shanghai     Shanghai     New York
4. Beijing          London        Tianjin
5. Delhi             Beijing         Chongqing
6. Kolkata         Los Angeles Shenzhen
7. Dhaka           Paris            Guangzhou
8. Sao Paulo   Chicago        Nanjing
9. Mexico City  Rhein-Ruhr  Hangzhou
10. New York     Shenzhen     Chengdu

Over the next 15 years, the regional distribution of the top 600 cities will change. One third of developed cities (developed regions comprise the United States and Canada, Western Europe, Australasia, Japan, and South Korea) will no longer be among the top 600. By 2025, 136 new cities are projeted to enter the top 600, all of them from the developing world.   100 of them are projected to come from from China alone. India is projected to contribute 13 new cities in the top 600 by 2025 and eight will come from Latin America.

Distribution by size

In 2007 developed economies and emerging market megacities (developing cities with populations greater rhan 10 million) together represent 74 % of global GDP in 2007. But according to MGI megacities have not benn driving global growth for the past 15 years and this trend is projected to continue.  MGI projects that today's 23 megacities will cotnribute only about 10% of global growth to 2025. 

The economic role of large cities varies among regions. China’s rapid growth depends on the growth of its megacities and the emergence of new ones.  According to MGI India’s urbanization is at a relatively early stage, while in Latin America rapidly growing middleweight cities are contributing more to GDP growth than its largest cities.

MGI projects that 407 emerging market middleweight cities will deliver nearly 40 percent of global growth by 2025, more than the aggregated developed world and emerging market megacities.  Of these 13 middleweight cities (Chicao + 12 in emerging markets primarily China) are projected to become megacities by 2025.

Age distribution

MGI project that the 423 cities from developing regions will contribute almost 80 percent of growth in the 65-plus age group in the City 600 over the next 15 years.

Conclusion

MGI's research suggests that to find opportunities we need shift focus from economies as a whole to cities within them, and from megacities to the rapidly groing middleweights, particularly in emerging markets.

In a nutshell in 2007

• 1.5 billion people live in these 600 cities—22 percent of global population
• They generated $30 trillion of GDP in 2007, more than half of global GDP
• They support 485 million households with average per capita GDP above $20,000
• Of these the top 100 cities generated $21 trillion of GDP in 2007 - 38 % of the global total.

In 2025 according to MGI's projection

• 2.0 billion people will live in these 600 cities - 25% of the global population
• They will generate $64 trillion of GDP, 60% of global GDP
• They will support 735 million households with average per capita GDP of $32,000, of which 235 million households in developing cities will have income above $20,000 per annum.

 

Increased urbanization is creating megaregions

I've blogged about the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor, (DMIC) a huge US$ 90 billion project 1,483 km in length linking Delhi and Mumbai.   The objective of the DMIC is to create a base for economic development by providing  access to the best state-of-the-art infrastructure. This project includes nine large Industrial zones of about 200-250 km²., a high speed freight line, three ports, six airports and a 4000 MW power plant.  An influence region of 150 km on either side of the freight line comprises the DMIC.  It strikes me that what is being created is a megaregion, a concept that is getting a lot of attention in the United States,

A megaregion is a new scale of geography that blurs the traditional boudaries between metropolitan regions, like what the DMIIC is doing with respect to Mumbai, Delhi and other smaller cities.  These population centers include Interlocking economic systems, shared natural resources and ecosystems, and common transportation systems. Population growth and increasing urbanization are the driving forces behind megaregions.

America2050 has defined 11 megaregions in the United States.  Megaregions are defined by relationships that define a common interest..  According to Amerca2500 the five major categories of relationships that define megaregions are:

• Environmental systems and topography
• Infrastructure systems
• Economic linkages
• Settlement patterns and land use
• Shared culture and history

Most of a country's rapid population growth and economic expansion is expected to occur in these megaregions.

These aggregations are so large that they need to be modeled and managed as smart cities.  For example, the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) is intended to be comprised of seven smart cities.  According to URENIO these smart cities are compact, vertical developments.  They use digital technology to create smart grids for better management of civic infrastructure.  They have an efficient public transportation system.  They recycle sewage water for industrial use.  Green spaces, cycle tracks and easy accessibility to goods, services and activities are designed to foster a sense of community..  They have underground utility corridors for parking, sewage disposal and communication lines.  Public transport is available within a 10-minute walk from home or office.

Geodesign Summit: What is geodesign and why geodesign ?

For over half the nearly 300 people in the audience at the fourth Geodesign Summit in Redlands this was their first Summit.  So there was a serious effort by several speakers including the MC Tom Fisher to define what geodesign is. 

Geodesign is an invented word,  The first use of the word has been traced to 1993, and picked up by ESRI in 2005.   Some of the definitions of the term that I heard at the conference include

Geodesign is a method which tightly couples the creating of design proposals with impact simulations informed by geographic contexts and systems thinking and (normally) supported by digital technology. Mike Flaxman, amended by Steve Ervin

Geodesign makes design decisions data rich.

Geodesign takes GIS analysis into the future.

Geodesign is design in a geographic space.  Bill Miller

Geodesign is a vision for using geographic knowledge to actively and thoughtfully design.  Jack Dangermond

Perhaps the most concise and the most comprehensive are from Carl Steinitz

Geodesign changes geography by design.

It is clear that for serious societal and environmental issues, designing for change cannot be a solitary activity.  Rather, it is inevitably a collaborative endeavor, wth participants from various design professions and geographic sciences, linked by technology from several locations for rapid communication and feedback, and  reliant on transparent communication with the people of the place who are also direct participants.

To understand what geodesign means in practice, the best way is to look at specific projects.  At the conference there were a number of interesting  presentations about diverse projects all of which reference geodesign and which provide examples of what people mean by geodesign in practice.  I plan to blog about several of these.

Why geodesign ?

A common theme in a number of speakers' presentations is that the effects of population growth, urbanization and climate change have reached the point where we urgently need a serious change, this change will require new tools, and geodesign could be one of them.

For example, Tom Fisher offered some pretty frightening statistics which are not hard to find these days.  There was a pervasive sense at the conference that the planet is on the brink and we have to change.  And if we don't change, the implications will be dire.  Bran Ferren put it this way (paraphrased) - this is that moment in the history of the US and of the world when we need to have a new and unfashionable conversation, a long term conversation on a complex topic where there are no simple, short answers.  David Bartlett (IBM Smarter Planet) was more specific.  "It is clear that there is an immediate requirement to significantly and urgently change the way our built environment is managed."

Cities leading in commercial real estate investment

At the Global Infrastructure Leadership Forum, Rosemary Feenan of Jones Lang Lasalle made the point that most of the world's private investment in commercial real estate projects goes to a relatively small number of cities.  Her list for 2010/2011 of the top 30 cities for direct commercial real estate investment for 2010-2011 and the total amount invested in billions is interesting.

1. London          $43 billion
2. Tokyo            $32
3. New York        $27
4. Hong Kong     $18
5. Paris            $18
6. Singapore     $15
7. Washington DC $13
8. Seoul           $12
9. Toronto         $10
10. Shanghai      $10
11. Las Angeles   $10
12. Beijing        $8
13. San Francisco  $8
14. Chicago        $7
15. Taipei         $7
16. Sydney         $7
17. Stockholm      $6
18. Boston         $6
19. Moscow         $6
20. Frankfurt      $5
21. Melbourne      $5
22. Berlin         $5
23. Calgary        $5
24. Rio de Janeiro $5
25. San Diego      $5
26. Hamburg        $4
27. Munich         $4
28. Miami          $4
29. Sao Paulo      $4
30. Manchester     $4

It is interesting that the top 10 includes Singapore and Toronto, both relatively small from a population perspective.  According to a recent report, Toronto leads other cities in North America by a considerable margin in number of tall buildings under construction, most of which are residential.

Urbanization and the science of cities

Just came across a fascinating documentary on urbanization, which in the last 200 years since the industrial revolution has been occurring at an exponential rate and represents the largest impact humans have had on the planet.  Some of the statistics are mind-boggling

• 52% live of world's population live in cities.
• There are 200 000 new urban dwellers every day.
• By 2050 6 billion people, equivalent to today's total population, will live in cities.
• On average over the next 30-40 years, a million people will move into cities every week.
• Cities are responsible for 70% of the world's energy use.

The documentary focuses on the need to better understand how cities work, to develop a serious science of cities in Geoffrey West's words, because althought the major problems we are facing are generated by cities, cities are creative and we should expect that the solutions to these problems will also be generated in cities.

The documentary makes the point that ICT, which enables real-time monotoring, control and automation, will be central to making citiies work, and work sustainably, in the future.

A fascinating example of how technology can be used is an MIT Senseable City Lab project "Trash Track" described by Carlo Ratti in which a micro device was attached to 3000 pieces of garbage and used to track what happened to this stuff after people threw it away.  Incredible to see the diverse places all over the country where stuff we throw way ends up.

Thanks to Melanie Ensign for pointing me to this.