Between the Poles

Pilot project to create national map of UK energy infrastructure launched

A proof-of-concept project to develop a National Energy Systems Map (NESM) has been launched by the UK’s electricity and gas networks. The pilot project will give customers information about energy network assets, where those assets are located as well as who owns them. This project is a result of a core recommendation of the Energy Data Taskforce for the development of a digital system map of the UK energy network infrastructure with the overall goal of developing a full digital twin of the UK energy system.

Background

In October 2018, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy of the UK government launched the Energy Data Taskforce, led by Energy Systems Catapult and supported by Ofgem and Innovate UK.  The objective of the task force was to determine how to release the power of data within the UK energy system. The final report A strategy for a Modern Digitalised Energy System provided a suite of recommendations on how data can contribute to developing and maintaining a decarbonized, decentralized and efficient energy system.

In most of world's major economies energy is increasingly decentralized increasingly relying on distributed energy resources (DER). Many assets such as electric vehicles, electric storage heaters and home batteries are capable of not only of consuming power but also able to generate it.  Modern assets are smart and able to signal and receive signals from network operators. Reducing the carbon content of power generation is a worldwide objective supported by governments, regulators and the utility industry.  New business models for utilities are emerging which reflect this new grid.  The UK government sees data as the key to unlocking the potential of the new grid. Transparent, accessible, interoperable and accurate data is seen as key to enabling network operators to adapt to and exploit the opportunities created by the new grid.

In the current energy system there are barriers to the effective use of data; no common data standards, no openly shared data repository and a culture of data hoarding rather than sharing.  It is estimated that a smart and flexible system can contribute to cumulative savings of up to £40 billion by 2050.

Development of a national digital energy map

One of the key recommendations of the task force is the development of a unified digital system map of the UK energy system. Such a map is intended to make infrastructure data accessible to all, to lower the barrier to entry and enable developers to create new solutions and validate new business models. Interoperability of network data is intended to provide networks, Ofgem and developers with efficiency benefits reducing data preparation and translation requirements.The digital energy system map will become one of the three data building blocks that will transform the energy system; a data catalogue which will provide a single, searchable location for energy system datasets, an asset registration strategy for identifying assets, and the digital system map that will provide a digital representation of the UK energy system.

The list of actions of the energy digitalization strategy in the recent Digitalising our energy system for net zero: Strategy and Action Plan 2021 includes the procurement of a National Energy System Map, with a proof of concept delivered by Q4 2021. The map will initially present datasets shared by network companies but is intended to grow and evolve with the addition of other energy sector data and potentially data from other sectors. To begin the implementation of this objective the Energy Networks Association has kicked off the development of a National Energy System Map for mainland UK that initially will encompass electric power and gas network data.  It is intended that this energy system data will be made publicly available as a digital map. The Energy Networks Association intends to deliver a proof of concept of a national energy system map in Q4 2021.

It is foreseen that a digital energy system system map will provide significant benefits; more efficient planning of renewable energy projects and future energy system infrastructure, more rapid development of new business models for energy, data standardization and interoperability, and increased energy system resilience through better system visibility.  In addition it will provide a foundation for the development of a digital twin of the UK's energy network.

Carbon dioxide emissions from electric power generation decoupled from economic growth in US

As a rule of thumb increasing electric power generation is closely coupled with economic expansion.  Between 2005 and 2017 the U.S. economy as measured by real GDP expanded by about 20 % from $15 trillion to $18 trillion. New data from the U.S. Energy Information administration (EIA) reveals that over this same period, emissions from power generation dropped primarily because of flat demand which is evidence of a decoupling between economic growth and power generation.

Data from the EIA reveals that during this time US power generation remained flat, but the makeup of U.S. power generation changed significantly.  Generation from natural gas now exceeds that from coal and generation from wind, solar and other renewable sources now exceeds hydroelectric generation.

With respect to emissions the change is even more impressive.  In a business as usual scenario assuming that demand continued to increase as it had prior to 2005, energy intensity (the energy required to produce a dollar of GDP) had remained at its 2005 value, and the energy mix had remained at its 2005 value, the expected emissions from electric power generation would have been about 3,043 MMmt (million metric tonnes). In 2017 actual emissions were much less, about 1,744 MMmt.  About half of the drop in emissions in 2017 compared to the projected business as usual emissions was due to less demand (654 MMmt).  Since the economy expanded over this time this is attributable to a drop in energy intensity and is evidence of decoupling of economic growth from power generation.  The other important factors were switching among fuels, primarily switching from coal to natural gas (329 MMmt) and replacing fossil fuels with non-hydro renewables (316 MMmt). 

In 2017 actual emissions from power generation were 43% less than that projected in the business as usual scenario and 28% below 2005 emissions. This is important progress toward the Paris accord targets (which the U.S. has dropped out of) since emissions from electricity generation are about 28% of U.S. total emissions.

Carbon capture and sequestration is still a key strategy to meet climate goals

The world's global coal-fired power generation plants provides around 40% of the world’s electricity. This fleet is the youngest it has been for decades, with more than 500 GW added since 2010, mostly in emerging economies. To simply shut these new and in many cases highly efficient plants down to meet climate goals would be a political, social and economic challenge. According to the IEA retrofitting these plants with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) will need to be a key strategy in many regions.

There are now 17 large-scale CCS projects operating around the world, with at least one more due to be commissioned this year. China has just announced construction of its first large-scale CCS project in the coal-chemicals sector and with seven further projects under early development.  The Petra Nova project in Texas was delivered on time and on budget earlier this year.  Petra Nova is the second, and much larger, project to retrofit post-combustion CCS technology to an existing coal-fired power station, with costs reportedly around 20% lower than the world-first effort at Boundary Dam in Canada. On the other hand work on the most ambitious carbon capture and storage (CCS) plant in the world at the Kemper County Energy Facility in MIssissippi has been suspended. It turned out that the rapid scale up of a new integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology from pilot to a 585 MW plant proved to be far more complex and challenging than anticipated.

Open source blockchain development to enable transactive energy

The world is rapidly developing the technology that allows energy flows to be  determined by market forces.  There is little doubt that transactive energy is in the future of electric power in North America, which already has continental grids, and in the EU with the development of the EU's supergrid. 

The Rocky Mountain Institute and Grid Singularity (a blockchain technology developer) have created the Energy Web Foundation (EWF), a non-profit organization whose mission is to further the development of transactive energy by accelerating the commercial deployment of blockchain technology in the energy sector.  Initial supporters are Centrica plc, Elia, Engie, Royal Dutch Shell plc, Sempra Energy, SP Group, Statoil ASA, Stedin, Technical Works Ludwigshafen AG (TWL), and Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco) who have provided a first round of funding of $2.5 million.

Blockchain is a decentralized, distributed database for managing transactions.  Blockchains provide a global infrastructure untethered from the stability or permission of governments and institutions.  It is the technology underlying Bitcoin.   Nasdaq and other financial institutions including banks have been experimenting with and developing applications based on blockchain technology. Nasdaq has opened its blockchain services framework to more than 100 of its market operator clients around the world.  Earlier this year Nasdaq demonstrated a blockchain service that lets solar power generators sell energy certificates. 

Blockchain technology has the potential to play a significant and potentially game-changing role in the energy sector by providing the financial infrastructure for transactive energy. Blockchain technology could provide the transactional infrastructure enabling millions of energy generators (for ex, rooftop solar PV) and energy consumers (HVAC systems, water heaters, electric vehicles) to transact with each other. Blockchain also provides higher levels of cybersecurity.  Grid Singularity with its partner Parity Technologies is leading the development of an open-source, energy-specific blockchain infrastructure that will be maintained by EWF and supporting affiliates.

Do natural gas-fired power plants contribute less greenhouse warming than coal ?

Emissions Associated with Electric Power Production

Methane represents 9.9 % of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and is at least 20 more times more potent in warming the atmosphere than carbon dioxide.

It has been asserted that natural gas power plants, which are responsible for 21% of power generation in the US, produce 50% less emissions than coal-fired plants. However, in the past the amount of methane gas that is lost (vented or leaked) during production, distribution and in plants has not been included in the calculation. Now a new study suggests that methane emissions from power plants and refineries may be much larger than current estimates.

A recent EPA analysis doubled its previous estimates for the amount of methane gas that leaks from pipes and is vented from gas wells, which significantly changes the emissions picture.  Methane (CH₄) levels from hydraulic fracturing of shale gas were found to be 9,000 times higher than previously reported.  Based on the new numbers, the median gas-powered plant in the United States is estimated to be 40 % cleaner than coal-fired plants, according to calculations ProPublica has made. In addition about half of the 1,600 gas-fired power plants in the US operate relatively inefficiently. In the past these plants were estimated to be 32 % cleaner than coal, but with the revised EPA estimates, these ~800 inefficient plants are estimated to produce 25 percent less emissions than coal.

But there is another issue.  Methane is one of the more potent greenhouse gases for global warming, but it is not clear just how much more potent methane is than CO₂.  The EPA has estimated a factor of  21 times compared to carbon dioxide. But Robert Howarth, an environmental biology professor at Cornell University, has suggested that it is actually 72 times as powerful as carbon dioxide in terms of its warming potential.  This is critical, because if the climate effect of methane from natural gas is 72 rather than 21 times that of carbon dioxide from burning coal, natural gas may even turn out to be worse than coal in terms of global warming.  Howarth has suggested that the type of shale gas drilling taking place in Texas, New York and Pennsylvania generates particularly high emissions of methane and could be as dirty as coal.

New estimates of methane emissions from power plants

Now a new study reports on overflights of power plants and refineries and finds that methane emissions are much larger than current estimates.  Power plants and oil refineries are large consumers of natural gas. The EPA has collected data contributed by operators and estimated the methane (CH4) emissions from these plants, but there is high uncertainty in these estimated. In this study an airborne chemistry lab was used to estimate the methane emissions from three gas-fired power plants and three oil refineries. The average methane emission rates were larger than than the operator-reported estimates by 21 to 120 times for the power plants and by 11 to 90 times for the refineries. By looking at the pattern of methane emissions compared to carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapour, the researchers were able to determine that the methane emissions were primarily from non-combustion processes suggesting leaks and venting as the sources. Scaling these result to the national level suggests that methane emissions from these types of facilities are 4.4 to 42 times larger than current estimates. The results indicate that gas-fired power plants and oil refineries could contribute significantly to U.S. methane emissions. The estimated contribution of 0.61 teragrams of methane annually (Tg CH4/yr) is significant, representing about 2% of total U.S. annual emissions of methane of about 30 Tg CH4/yr.

A recently published study has assessed the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Based on the results of this analysis the authors conclude that the EPA underestimates methane emissions nationally by a factor of about 1.5.  Generally the study found that methane emissions due to the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories.

One of the motivations from switching from coal to natural gas for these types of facilities is that natural gas delivers the same amount of energy but with significantly reduced emissions. But that does not take into account leaks and other processes releasing methane during production, distribution and within plants.  These latest results further reduce the advantage of gas-fired over coal-fired power production.

A study by Robert W. Howarth, Renee Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea has concluded that the emissions of methane from shale gas wells are between 30% and 100% more than methane emissions from conventional natural gas wells.  The study estimates that between 3.6% to 7.9% of the methane from shale-gas production escapes to the atmosphere in venting and leaks over the lifetime of a well.

As a result the study found that the greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint for shale gas is greater than that for conventional gas or oil. When compared to coal, which is responsible for nearly 50% of electric power generation in the US,  the GHG footprint of shale gas is estimated to be 20% to 100% greater than coal over a 20 year period.  Over a 100 years, the study concludes that the GHG impact of shale gas is comparable to coal.

Third year of decoupling emissions from global economic growth

According to the IEA, even thought the world's economy grew in 2016, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remained constant.  This is the third year in a row of "decoupled emissions", economic growth that did not generate more emissions.  The IEA ascribes the flattening of emissions to growing renewable power generation, switches from coal to natural gas, improvements in energy efficiency, and economic factors.  The IEA estimated that energy-related emissions in 2016 amounted to 32.1 gigatonnes, the same as the previous two years.  In 2016 the global economy grew 3.1%. Carbon dioxide emissions declined in the United States and China and were stable in Europe, offsetting increases in most of the rest of the world.  According to the IEA in the United States, carbon dioxide emissions dropped by 3% while the economy grew by 1.6%.

2017 ASCE Infrastructure Scorecard reveals slight improvement

The 2017 ASCE Infrastructure Scorecard has been released this morning.  Grades for seven categories of infrastructure – Hazardous Waste, Inland Waterways, Levees, Ports, Rail, Schools, and Wastewater – improved slightly. The grades for three categories – Parks, Solid Waste, and Transit – declined this year.  The overall cumulative GPA remained constant at D+.

2013 and 2017
Water and the environment

    Dams                    D  D
    Drinking Water      D  D
    Hazardous Waste D  D+
    Levees                  D- D
    Solid Waste          B- C+
    Wastewater          D  D+

Transportation

    Aviation                 D  D
    Bridges                 C+ C+
    Inland Waterways D- D
    Ports                     C  C+
    Rail                       C+ B
    Roads                   D  D
    Transit                   D  D-

Public Facilities

    Public Parks & Recreation C- D+
    Schools                 D  D+

Energy

    Energy                  D+ D+

Canada prices carbon

The Canadian government has announced a a pan-Canadian policy on climate change including a floor price on carbon beginning in 2018.  The Paris agreement commits Canada to a 30 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases from 2005 levels by 2030.  The floor price of carbon starts at a minimum of $10 per tonne of GHG emissions in 2018, rising by $10 each year to $50 per tonne by 2022. All of the money raised will be returned to the respective provinces, who can, in turn, distribute those funds to their citizens in the form of tax cuts.  The federal program will be compatible with existing provincial carbon pricing programs.  Ontario and Quebec already have a cap-and-trade program.  British Columbia already has a carbon tax of $30 per tonne.  Alberta has announced it will have a $20 per tonne carbon tax beginning in 2017, rising to $30 a tonne in 2018.  Eight of ten provinces have signed onto the agreement.  The federal government said it will impose a carbon price on the two non-signatory jurisdictions, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The final agreement includes a list of already announced measures including new building codes to improve building energy efficiency, more charging stations for electric cars, expanding clean electricity sources and upgrading power grids.

IEA World Energy Outlook projects world warming greater than 2° C based on COP21 committments

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued its annual World Energy Outlook 2016.  The IEA has examined several scenarios. All the Paris COP21 climate pledges from 190 countries have been incorporated into its main scenario.  (It does not include any assessment of what the Trump administration may do with respect to the COP21 committments made by the world's second largest emitter.) It has projected that this scenario will actually result in 2.7 °C of warming.  A scenario, called the 450 Scenario, with a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 2 ° C was also examined.

In its main scenario which includes emission reductions from COP21 pledges, the IEA projects a 30% rise in global energy demand to 2040.  In 2040 it is projected that 60% of all new power generation capacity will come from renewables.  In 2040 renewables are projected to represent 37% of all power generation.  By 2040 most renewables-based generation is projected to be competitive without subsidies. Solar PV is expected to see a further 40-70% reduction in cost by 2040 and onshore wind by an additional 10-25%. However, fossil fuel generation continues to be important. Natural gas consumption is projected to rise by 50%.  Growth in coal use essentially stops while growth in nuclearpower is limited to China.

Energy-related CO2 emissions plateaued in 2015 mainly because of a 1.8% improvement in the energy intensity of the global economy.   This is partly because a growing proportion of the $1.8 trillion currently invested in energy annually is directed to renewables.  But the IEA projects that even with the COP21 commitments energy-related emissions will continue to grow by 0.5% per year.

It is projected that a cumulative $44 trillion in investment will be needed in the global energy supply over the next 15 years.  60% of this will go to oil, gas and coal extraction and supply, including power plants using these fuels, and nearly 20% to renewable energies. Another $23 trillion will be required for energy efficiency improvements.   For comparison over the last 15 years, 70% of total energy supply investment went to fossil fuels.   This scenario requires a significant reallocation of capital from fossil fuels to renewables. This is aided by dropping fossil fuel subsidies.  In 2015 the value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies dropped to $325 billion, down from $500 billion the previous year.

The IEA projects that the COP21 commitments will slow the projected rise in global energy-related CO2 emissions.  However, it does not believe that this is enough to limit warming to less than 2 °C.  The IEA's 450 Scenario, which is based on a 50 % probability of limiting warming to under 2 °C, requires a further major reallocation of investment capital going to the energy sector. A greater proportion of the $40 trillion in cumulative energy supply investment has to move from fossil fuels and towards renewables and other low carbon investments in nuclear and carbon capture and storage so that the share going to fossil fuels would drop to about a third. In addition, $35 trillion is needed for improvements in energy efficiency - that's $12 trillion more compared with the main scenario. The 450 Scenario implies that before the end of this century, the energy sector must become carbon-neutral.  That means all residual emissions from fuel combustion are either captured and stored, or offset by technologies that remove carbon from the atmosphere.

Low carbon climate-resilient infrastructure requires private funding

A Report by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate has recommended that since more than 60% of the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are sourced from the world's existing stock of infrastructure, ensuring infrastructure is built to deliver sustainability is the only way to meet the COP21 goal  of keeping warming below 2°C and to guarantee long-term, inclusive and resilient growth. Infrastructure underpins core economic activity and is an essential foundation for achieving inclusive sustainable growth.  Investing in sustainable infrastructure is key for reigniting global growth and reducing climate risk.

The Global Commission is chaired by former President of Mexico Felipe Calderón and co-chaired by the climate economist Lord Nicholas Stern.

The report estimates that $90 trillion in sustainable infrastructure investment will be required over the next 15 years.  It stresses that this will require a shift in the world's construction and financial sectors to ensure that this money, which will be increasingly private, is spent on low-carbon, energy-efficient projects. 

Change in infrastructure spending required for a 2°C scenario (percentage change in expenditure over 2015-2030 compared to Business-as-usual)

The report has adopted a broad definition of infrastructure which includes both traditional types of infrastructure; energy, public transport, buildings, water supply, and sanitation and also natural infrastructure; forest landscapes, wetlands and watershed protection.  Infrastructure underpins core economic activity and is an essential foundation for achieving inclusive sustainable growth. It is indispensable for development and poverty elimination, as it enhances access to basic services, education and work opportunities, and can boost human capital and quality of life.

Investment is needed to replace ageing infrastructure in advanced economies and to accommodate higher growth and structural change in emerging market and developing countries. This will require a significant increase globally, from the estimated US$3.4 trillion per year currently invested in infrastructure to about US$6 trillion per year. The Global Commission found that it does not need to cost much more to ensure that this new infrastructure is compatible with climate goals, and the additional up-front costs can be fully offset by efficiency gains and fuel savings over the infrastructure lifecycle.

Importance of private infrastructure financing

Transforming the financial system and its intermediaries is essential to scaling up sustainable infrastructure finance.  Public finance and investment will continue to play a critical role, particularly in low-income countries.  But large amounts of private capital are needed and this will only flow if the right market signals are present within the financial system. The report suggests that reforms are needed in the financial regulatory system as well as other policy reforms, specifically, to price carbon to level the playing field between sustainable and unsustainable options in order to encourage private investment in sustainable infrastructure.

Private investment requires financial returns.  Efficiency in construction and operation and maintenance of infrastructure is essential. Increasing productivity drives technological innovation. Many governments as well as private sector engineering and construction firms have identified building information modeling (BIM) as a key foundation for increasing construction productivity.  Owners are beginning to recognize the benefits of full lifecycle BIM especially when augmented by geospatial technology.

Energy

The report estimates that energy infrastructure will require investment of US$25 trillion, or nearly a third of total core infrastructure investment over the coming 15 years. In addition energy efficiency will require investment of about the same magnitude.  Building sustainable energy infrastructure encourages economic growth, reduces air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, and plays a key role in building resilience.

Energy efficiency

The report found that energy efficiency is a highly cost-effective way to manage demand and reduce the investment requirements for overall energy supply. Increasing energy efficiency in industry, buildings and transport could achieve up to half of the emission reductions needed globally to peak greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 according to the IEA.  Energy efficiency investments in IEA member countries since 1990 have avoided US$5.7 trillion of energy expenditure.  The IEA estimates further investments could boost global GDP by US$18 trillion by 2035, increasing growth by as much as 1.1% per year.  Energy efficiency measures are estimated to create up to three times as many jobs as fossil fuel supply investments per dollar of investment.

A key recommendation of the Global Commission’s 2015 report was to scale up commitments by development banks working with governments and the private sector to invest at least US$1 trillion per year by 2030 in clean energy, including energy efficiency.

Air pollution

Outdoor air pollution, much of which is associated with fossil fuels, is linked to nearly 4 million premature deaths per year. In China, it is estimated that air pollution killed around 1.6 million people in China in 2013. In India, the air pollution toll in 2013 stood at 1.4 million deaths.  In Europe, coal plant emissions account for more than 18,200 premature deaths, about 8,500 new cases of chronic bronchitis, and over 4 million lost working days each year.  Analysis for the Global Commission shows that the health and mortality burden of air pollution amounts to as much as 4% or more of GDP in some countries. Recent analysis by the OECD has found that globally air pollution-related healthcare costs alone are projected to increase from US$21 billion in 2015 to US$176 billion in 2060.

Cities

It is estimated that by 2050, two-thirds of the global population will live in cities, and over 70% of the global demand for infrastructure over the next 15 years is expected to be in urban areas.  How cities develop is important both for growth and for climate change.  The report emphasizes that investment in sustainable infrastructure is essential to make cities inclusive, safe, and resilient.

Global Commission

The global commission is supported by governmental and private sector leaders: Sharan Burrow, General Secretary, International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC), Australia; Suma Chakrabarti, President, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development Programme (UNDP); Former Prime Minister of New Zealand; Jamshyd Godrej Chairman and Managing Director, Godrej & Boyce Mfg Co. Ltd., India; Stuart Gulliver, Group Chief Executive, HSBC Holdings plc and Chairman of The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited; Angel Gurría, Secretary-General, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); Chad O. Holliday, Chairman, Shell, United States; and Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Finance Minister of Indonesia